Since its military intervention in Syria a year ago, Russia has played a double game. It has appeared to go along with the international effort to bring about a political settlement while simultaneously it has worked meticulously to decide the crisis on the battlefield. All along the crisis, President Putin's appetite for destroying Assad's foes is unquestioned but peace is clearly not on the menu.
When Russian planes started to bomb Syrian cities, no one could have foreseen the turbulent times ahead. A year on since the beginning of Russian airstrikes one can now say that the intervention has secured two of Moscow's objectives: Assad's survival is to continue for a while and Russia's role as a key player in resolving the conflict is set in stone. And yet, progress would come at a price. Over the last week, Russian war crimes can no longer be ignored, it is being brought to the international community's front door.
Having said that, there is less cause for celebration. Assad's troops along with the Iranians and Hezbollah militia have failed to defeat the rebels or force them to surrender. Besides, Moscow has failed to force the anti-Assad rebels to accept a settlement on Russia's terms. President Putin is aware of of the fact that his success in realizing all of his objectives in Syria is far from certain. For this reason, his country has just doubled its military support for Assad. With no end to the killings in sight, the Syrian people are paying a heavy price at a time when both Putin and Assad are no more sensitive to the heavy casualties or to the sentiments of the international community.
The assumption in the West and particularly in the US was that Russia would not win the conflict militarily and therefore would be forced to negotiate a way out. President Obama's prediction that Russia would soon get stuck in a quagmire in Syria has not yet come true. Russia has no boots on the ground and that airstrikes are costing Moscow around $3 million a day (a tiny fraction of its huge defense budget).
Besides, Russia has started deploying more lethal weapons in the assault on Aleppo including bunker buster and phosphorus bombs.
The new escalation which came on the heels of the collapse of the cease-fire has only aggravated the situation on the ground and deepened the misery of civilians. Bombs and missiles rained down in the last few days with unprecedented intensity. The number of civilians killed is growing with some estimates putting the toll at above 3,000 since Russian airstrikes began a year a go.
Now as the noose on Aleppo has tightened, the international community looks powerless. Despite the condemnation coming from Western capitals, it seems that Russia feels less constrained than before. Therefore, President Putin's strategy of deception and buying time will continue as long as there is no obvious price tag. If there is anyone to blame, it should be the backers of the rebels. Unfortunately, the rebels have to fight for a long time on back heels. The United States vetoed arming the moderate rebels with weapons that could make the Russians pay a heavy price.
It seems that President Putin can live with the western condemnations as long as he gets what he seeks. We have seen this during the Crimea crisis as well. Of course Putin understands the language of balance of forces. As long as it favors his troops in Syria he is less likely to budge. Hence, checking Russia entails more than some criticism voiced by a lame duck president in the Oval Office.
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The writer is a professor of international Relations at Qatar University.
When Russian planes started to bomb Syrian cities, no one could have foreseen the turbulent times ahead. A year on since the beginning of Russian airstrikes one can now say that the intervention has secured two of Moscow's objectives: Assad's survival is to continue for a while and Russia's role as a key player in resolving the conflict is set in stone. And yet, progress would come at a price. Over the last week, Russian war crimes can no longer be ignored, it is being brought to the international community's front door.
Having said that, there is less cause for celebration. Assad's troops along with the Iranians and Hezbollah militia have failed to defeat the rebels or force them to surrender. Besides, Moscow has failed to force the anti-Assad rebels to accept a settlement on Russia's terms. President Putin is aware of of the fact that his success in realizing all of his objectives in Syria is far from certain. For this reason, his country has just doubled its military support for Assad. With no end to the killings in sight, the Syrian people are paying a heavy price at a time when both Putin and Assad are no more sensitive to the heavy casualties or to the sentiments of the international community.
The assumption in the West and particularly in the US was that Russia would not win the conflict militarily and therefore would be forced to negotiate a way out. President Obama's prediction that Russia would soon get stuck in a quagmire in Syria has not yet come true. Russia has no boots on the ground and that airstrikes are costing Moscow around $3 million a day (a tiny fraction of its huge defense budget).
Besides, Russia has started deploying more lethal weapons in the assault on Aleppo including bunker buster and phosphorus bombs.
The new escalation which came on the heels of the collapse of the cease-fire has only aggravated the situation on the ground and deepened the misery of civilians. Bombs and missiles rained down in the last few days with unprecedented intensity. The number of civilians killed is growing with some estimates putting the toll at above 3,000 since Russian airstrikes began a year a go.
Now as the noose on Aleppo has tightened, the international community looks powerless. Despite the condemnation coming from Western capitals, it seems that Russia feels less constrained than before. Therefore, President Putin's strategy of deception and buying time will continue as long as there is no obvious price tag. If there is anyone to blame, it should be the backers of the rebels. Unfortunately, the rebels have to fight for a long time on back heels. The United States vetoed arming the moderate rebels with weapons that could make the Russians pay a heavy price.
It seems that President Putin can live with the western condemnations as long as he gets what he seeks. We have seen this during the Crimea crisis as well. Of course Putin understands the language of balance of forces. As long as it favors his troops in Syria he is less likely to budge. Hence, checking Russia entails more than some criticism voiced by a lame duck president in the Oval Office.
—
The writer is a professor of international Relations at Qatar University.
