It is ironic that the first victims of the controversial protest law that was passed by the military-installed government in Egypt last month were not Muslim Brotherhood supporters but three prominent secular activists who until recently had backed the July 3 ouster of President Muhammad Mursi and the transitional road map to restore democracy.
It is an indication that the new rulers of Egypt are expanding their crackdown on dissent to include once close allies. The development is significant; an addition to the tumultuous events that followed the June 30 mass demonstrations where secular groups, such as the April 6 movement, supported calls to depose Egypt’s first freely elected president and put an end to the divisive rule of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Millions of Egyptians applauded the quick and stern intervention by Minister of Defense Gen. Abdel-Fatah El- Sissi. That event proved to be an important milestone in Egypt’s so-called Arab Spring. The debate has never ceased on whether that intervention was a coup or a sequel to the Jan. 25 uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak.
But this week’s sentencing of Ahmed Maher, Ahmed Douma and Mohamed Adel to three years in jail, all of whom had played a major part in the uprising that removed Mubarak, signals a divorce between the military and an important segment of secular forces, especially the youth. This parting of ways comes at a crucial phase as well. Next month Egyptians will go to the polls to vote on a new constitution, the adoption of which will represent an important achievement under the roadmap. It should be followed by legislative and presidential elections, thus restoring democratic rule.
Reacting to the unusually harsh jail sentences, April 6 movement announced that it will boycott the referendum and withdrew its support of the transitional roadmap. It has called for protests in defiance of the government; the largest will mark the anniversary of the Jan. 25 uprising. It is early to say as to how such calls will affect the outcome of the referendum. The divergence deepened when the government adopted the controversial protest law, which local and international human rights organizations denounced. Egyptian activists believe they have earned the right to march and demonstrate since their triumph almost three years ago.
Until recently the government was focused on battling pro-Mursi coalition of mostly Islamists forces, which has held demonstrations in Cairo and other cities rejecting the ouster of Mursi and calling for the restoration of “legitimate” leadership. Recently they moved their dissent to universities. The protest law, which was enacted immediately after lifting the state of emergency, was meant to undermine such demonstrations. Thousands of Mursi supporters have been arrested since then. Mursi himself is facing numerous charges, including treason, with other Muslim Brotherhood leaders. The movement was banned, but supporters say they will boycott the referendum and continue with their protests.
The new regime enjoys the support of many Arab countries and has avoided breaking relations with Washington. The recent friction with secular and some Salafist forces has not affected its drive to crack down on opponents. It still has wide backing from the public although the government it appointed has become increasingly unpopular.
Chances are that the new constitution will be adopted by the majority of Egyptians. People are worn out and are looking for stability and economic recovery. The military has safeguarded its role and influence under the new constitution and the big question today is whether Gen. Sisi will run for the presidency next year. If he does then he can be assured of winning.
But that will not end Egypt’s chronic problems. The fight against the Muslim Brotherhood, a movement that still has support in mostly conservative parts of the country, cannot go on forever. The military is yet to emerge as winner in the fight against extremists in Sinai. And then there are Egypt’s economic challenges, which in spite of billions of dollars in Gulf aid remain largely insurmountable.
Contrasts between the 1952 military coup against the monarchy and the July 3 overthrow of Mursi cannot be missed. In both cases Egypt succumbed to the rule of a military strongman. Gamal Abdel Nasser fought the Muslim Brotherhood for years and Gen. Sissi is doing the same today. But as Nasser’s grip on power got stronger he shifted his attention to other opponents, including communists and leftists. The latest tussle with young secular activists is a reminder of Nasser’s era.
However, there are those who believe that Egypt can only be ruled by a strong and populist leader; an authoritarian governor who understands Egypt’s strategic importance in the region while appealing emotionally to the masses. Nasser’s experiment was a contentious one and it ended in disaster. Can Sissi, who many Egyptians liken him to the charismatic Nasser, avoid a similar end?
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