The Obama administration has gone out of its way to persuade regional states that the Iran nuclear deal is rock solid and bodes well for Iran’s cooperation to end conflicts. A highly suspicious US Congress failed to prevent its passing because the president strong-armed reluctant Democrats with the most intensive lobbying in recent US history to launch a filibuster in the Senate.
And so the accord is ready for implementation on Oct. 14. While President Obama celebrates his victory, only 21 percent of the American people approve of the deal.
Congressional decisions may now be irrelevant but that didn’t prevent the House of Representatives registering its disapproval with a symbolic vote on Friday; many lawmakers object to secret agreements signed by Iran and the international nuclear watchdog the IAEA, including one that seemingly permits Iran to self-inspect its Parchin military complex.
Others fear that lifting of sanctions providing Iran with a $50-$80 billion bonanza, mega trade deals and sales of oil and gas will not only be geopolitically empowering, but will also fill the coffers of its proxy militias. They’re right to be worried. There are no signs at all that the ayatollahs intend changing their aggressive stance.
On the contrary, Ayatollah Khamenei, still rages against “the Great Satan” and has made assurances that his support for “resistance” groups such as Hezbollah and pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq and Yemen will be ramped-up, warning the West that “during this period, the spirit of fighting, heroism and jihad will keep you worried every moment.”
Those suggesting that the nuclear deal could result in a détente with the US, including normalization of relations with some believing Tehran could be a partner to bring peace to Syria and Iraq are fatally naïve. The Ayatollah says he has no intention of negotiating anything else with America he accused of behaving “in a twofold way…”
Just a week ago, he said this: “Some people insist on disguising this Great Satan as the savior angel. The Iranian nation expelled this Satan; we must not allow that after we expelled it through the door, it could return and gain influence through the window.”
That doesn’t sound like a person in the mood to compromise on any other issues. But defenders of the deal make the excuse that he doesn’t really mean what he says; he’s just playing to the hard-line choir before the Iranian Parliament ratifies the deal. Personally, I don’t buy that when Iranian lawmakers who dared to defy Khamenei could see their careers cut short.
US intelligence has a history of failing to read the writing on the wall or simply getting it wrong. America was supposedly surprised at the rapid rise of Daesh for instance. The intelligence community’s greatest blunder was without doubt Saddam’s horde of nuclear weapon, which turned out to be a figment of someone’s imagination. And now they’ve done it again.
On Saturday, the head of the IAEA announced that Iran — thanks to aerial prospecting able to catch radioactive signatures — has “unexpectedly” discovered a new mine containing high reserves of radioactive uranium and will shortly be extracting uranium ore to be refined into yellowcake, which will probably render Iran self-sufficient.
Iran’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi says he cannot announce the amount of Iran’s reserves, but “the new discoveries have made us confident…”
What a coincidence coming just days after Congress sealed the deal! If the US can’t be trusted on this, how can it be trusted on the other aspects? And while it may indeed be the case that the Iranian government was oblivious to this windfall last week, I wouldn’t bet my house on it.
The find contradicts the soothing messages coming out of the White House, the State Department and various think tanks suggesting the country’s dwindling and poor grade uranium resources will force Iran to make imports, which can be easily monitored. John Kerry, who’s been pushing the point during his relentless sales pitch, is left with egg on his face.
Michael Goodwin writing in the New York Post accuses Democratic lawmakers for listening to a president who said jump without asking how high. “Their willingness to take a risk for peace might be commendable,” he writes, “if peace were the mutual goal.”
But trusting that Iran will drop its conquering ambitions and moderate its martyrdom culture is a foolish roll of the dice in a life-or-death casino.
Iran is rightly gloating. Obama thinks he’s secured his legacy. But time will tell just what kind of legacy that will be for America and, most importantly, for a tumultuous region craving stability.
