Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will reach the United States on Sept. 26 and will meet President Barack Obama on Sept. 29-30, thus bringing his forays into international diplomacy in past four months to a climax. But the million-dollar question is whether this is the right time for Modi to undertake a visit abroad?
Modi’s summit meeting with Obama would be his third engagement with a major world leader within a month after having met Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Japan on Aug. 30-Sept. 1 and Chinese President Xi Jinping in India on Sept. 17-18.
His US trip is a grand finale of the pro-active diplomacy Modi launched even before he was sworn in as the premier on May 26 this year. In many ways, Modi’s US trip will be a personal victory for him as he had been denied US visa for almost a decade for his alleged sins of omission and commission in worst communal riots in Gujarat in 2002 when he was the state’s chief minister.
However, there is a big question mark on Modi spending full five days in the US (even though he is skipping the crucial UN Climate Summit that got under way in New York on Sept. 23) at a time when he is needed to be in India for pressing national security and political issues. Though this writer is not taking away the importance of the US for India, the timing and the long span of the trip are questionable.
From national security perspective, thousands of Indian and Chinese troops are engaged in a standoff in Chumar region of Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir since Sept. 11. Significantly, the standoff started when Chinese troops launched an incursion into Indian territory along the un-demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) and stayed put there even during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s India visit.
Worse, days after Xi returned home from his India trip, the Chinese president came up with a puzzling remark asking the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to improve its ability to win a regional war. Xi’s remark was as follows: “Headquarters of all PLA forces should improve their combat readiness and sharpen their ability to win a regional war in the age of information technology.”
Though China has officially downplayed Xi’s remarks and Chinese foreign office spokesperson Hua Chunying went on record on Sept. 23 as saying that “We will never allow border area issues to influence Sino-India relations, so you may be assured,” the Chumar incident and Xi’s remarks have triggered a major security concern in India.
Then there are political developments warranting Modi’s presence at home. Maharashtra and Haryana are scheduled to go for assembly elections on Oct. 15, Modi’s first major challenge and a test by fire since he took over as PM. The campaigning in the two states will close 48 hours before the poll date.
Modi will be back home from the US on Oct. 1. The next day he is scheduled to launch a major national scheme “Clean India.” This means that he will be having just 10 or 11 days for campaigning in these crucial elections.
Modi is the poster boy of his party, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Such has been his meteoric rise since Sept. 13 last year when he was nominated the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate that no other leader of the BJP matters much within the party as well as for the electorate.
He did not campaign during three sets of bye-elections in past couple of months, including the bye-elections for three Lok Sabha and 33 assembly seats earlier this month. And the BJP got a severe drubbing in all these bye-elections.
Therefore, now that Modi is the biggest, and perhaps the only, vote-catcher in the BJP it is important for the BJP that Modi campaigns extensively in the two poll-bound states.
Modi’s US visit, thus, has come at a highly inopportune time for Modi himself as well as his party. Moreover, there are a lot of skeptics in the diplomatic and strategic establishments of India who feel that Modi’s US visit is unlikely to be a game changer. India’s major concerns on visa and civilian nuclear cooperation remain unaddressed for years and there is nothing to suggest on the ground that Modi will achieve a breakthrough on these issues during his US visit.
For years the much-hyped India-US nuclear deal has remained just a useless piece of paper with not a single dollar worth American investment having come to India since the deal was formally signed on Oct. 8, 2008. This is because the American companies have refused to do business with India in view of the stringent Indian Nuclear Liability law. India has thus far refused to amend the law.
India and US may sign a couple of important deals in the area of defense. But then spending full five days in the US at this crucial time for symbolic talks and ceremonial speeches does not seem to be politically correct for Modi.
