Russia has begun marketing a peaceful solution for Syria that would include the opposition. This is the first time it has done so since getting militarily involved in the war alongside the Syrian and Iranian regimes.
The negative is that it wants to keep Syrian President Bashar Assad. As such, this is a bad solution that will fail because the opposition rejects Assad. Can Moscow develop its ideas to allow negotiators to reach a solution?
It has been six months since Russia entered the war with its most advanced weapons. It has not achieved much in terms of its promise to deter Assad’s enemies, as even Aleppo — which it had pledged to liberate — is still mostly controlled by the opposition. Assad’s forces and their ally Hezbollah have achieved progress on the ground but not decisive victories and there is nothing on the horizon to suggest there will be.
Last month, Russia suffered its first painful defeat when some of its helicopters and a logistical depot in its military base between Aleppo and Palmyra were destroyed. Moscow denied the incident, but intelligence firm Stratfor published photos of the extent of the destruction following the attack. It is an important development that confirms the high cost of the war for everyone, not just for the Syrian people, who are being randomly barrel-bombed by an unaccountable regime.
Assad’s three major allies — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah — have come to realize that victory in Syria is impossible without a political solution. However, they face two problems. The first is their inability to progress because most Syrians are against the regime, so supporting it will not achieve permanent control on the ground even if they do achieve some victories. The second problem is the longer they fight, the greater their losses.
Meanwhile, Washington has assumed the role of a referee, and hopes the game will end with a tie, or President Barack Obama’s presidential term ends without political losses in Syria.
The crisis will be passed on to his successor. Russia is increasing putting pressure on Washington as it aims to expand the scope of its military targets after failing to produce victories. We must not be distracted from the core of the conflict, which is Iranian expansion in the region that aims to control Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This cannot only be addressed by a solution that pleases the Russians in Damascus. Making concessions to Moscow will mean making concessions to Tehran in the entire region, not just in Syria.
The negative is that it wants to keep Syrian President Bashar Assad. As such, this is a bad solution that will fail because the opposition rejects Assad. Can Moscow develop its ideas to allow negotiators to reach a solution?
It has been six months since Russia entered the war with its most advanced weapons. It has not achieved much in terms of its promise to deter Assad’s enemies, as even Aleppo — which it had pledged to liberate — is still mostly controlled by the opposition. Assad’s forces and their ally Hezbollah have achieved progress on the ground but not decisive victories and there is nothing on the horizon to suggest there will be.
Last month, Russia suffered its first painful defeat when some of its helicopters and a logistical depot in its military base between Aleppo and Palmyra were destroyed. Moscow denied the incident, but intelligence firm Stratfor published photos of the extent of the destruction following the attack. It is an important development that confirms the high cost of the war for everyone, not just for the Syrian people, who are being randomly barrel-bombed by an unaccountable regime.
Assad’s three major allies — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah — have come to realize that victory in Syria is impossible without a political solution. However, they face two problems. The first is their inability to progress because most Syrians are against the regime, so supporting it will not achieve permanent control on the ground even if they do achieve some victories. The second problem is the longer they fight, the greater their losses.
Meanwhile, Washington has assumed the role of a referee, and hopes the game will end with a tie, or President Barack Obama’s presidential term ends without political losses in Syria.
The crisis will be passed on to his successor. Russia is increasing putting pressure on Washington as it aims to expand the scope of its military targets after failing to produce victories. We must not be distracted from the core of the conflict, which is Iranian expansion in the region that aims to control Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This cannot only be addressed by a solution that pleases the Russians in Damascus. Making concessions to Moscow will mean making concessions to Tehran in the entire region, not just in Syria.
