Troubling developments in the Balkans

There is no shortage of geopolitical challenges right now. China is posturing against Taiwan. Iranian aggression remains unchecked across the Middle East. Europe faces a deepening energy crisis. And, of course, the world is still dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Due to the Biden administration’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, these challenges come at a time of perceived American weakness and disengagement on the global stage. Allies are questioning Washington’s resolve and adversaries will test the US like never before.

However, there is one region of the world where a storm is brewing and it is receiving little attention from policymakers: The Balkans in southeastern Europe. After several ferocious sectarian wars in the 1990s following the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the Europeans and Americans were able to stabilize the region. The geopolitical situation there has since remained stable but fragile, and at least there has not been a serious threat of conflict breaking out — until now.

The Balkans continue to struggle with high unemployment, pervasive corruption and the flight of human capital, especially among the young and well educated. Even today, ethnic, religious and cultural diversity is being used by nationalist leaders to hold on to power while holding the people hostage to the fear of another war.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is the best example of the challenges facing the region. Like its neighbors, Bosnia faces many social and economic challenges. As you might expect, these challenges are worsened by the sectarian divisions inside the country that are being fueled by those outside it.

Two sub-state entities within Bosnia and Herzegovina emerged following the civil war of the 1990s: The Bosnian and Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the ethnically Serb Republika Srpska.

The latter’s leader, Milorad Dodik, has long advocated independence for the region. Recently, he announced that he wants Republika Srpska to withdraw from state institutions such as Bosnia’s central bank, the Bosnian armed forces, and the judicial system, among others. He proposes the creation of new, parallel structures in Republika Srpska to replace them. If his dangerous vision is realized, this would lead to the dissolution of Bosnia and Herzegovina as we know it — and possibly a new war.

The threat posed by Dodik’s actions have not gone unnoticed. The international community’s high representative in Bosnia, Christian Schmidt, recently submitted a report to the UN in which he stated in the first sentence that “Bosnia and Herzegovina faces the greatest existential threat of the postwar period.”

The position of the US is that “Dodik poses a significant threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia-Herzegovina.” Washington has kept Dodik under sanctions since 2017.

The Americans and Europeans have invested greatly over the years to maintain a level of stability in the Balkans. Billions of dollars have been spent on reconstruction in the region and thousands of soldiers have served in the Balkans since the 1990s.

Now is not the time to undo the modest gains the region has experienced since the late 1990s. There are three things that can be done.

Firstly, the West needs to offer a clear and realistic path to transatlantic membership. There has been no greater tool to encourage good governance, economic improvements and defense reforms than the desire to join NATO, for example. While it is great news that countries such as Montenegro and North Macedonia have joined the alliance in recent years, there needs to be a realistic path for Bosnia and Herzegovina, too.

Secondly, the West also needs to deal with Serbia with its eyes open. Serbia is unlikely to join Euro-Atlantic organizations anytime soon, and holding out hope for a massive change in the nation’s trajectory is naive. Some Serbian leaders have pushed the idea of a “Serb World” uniting all ethnic Serbs in the Balkans under Belgrade’s influence.

The last thing Europe or the world needs is another sectarian war in the Balkans.

Luke Coffey

Finally, NATO should refocus on the Balkans. For too long the organization has been dealing with security problems well outside its original remit of “the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.”

NATO is currently drafting a Strategic Concept — the main policy document that sets the direction of the alliance. The last Strategic Concept, published in 2010, was 40 pages long but barely mentioned the Balkans. NATO has a chance to correct this and give the region the focus it needs.

The Americans and Europeans, with the help of partners in the international community, have played a constructive role in the Balkans. Now is not the time for that international community to turn its back. The last thing Europe or the world needs is another sectarian war in the Balkans.