When Ronald Reagan won the US presidency in 1981, Iran perceived it was dealing with a strong leader. As a result, it soon responded to his warnings and freed 52 US embassy personnel it had taken hostage for 400 days during the tenure of Reagan’s predecessor Jimmy Carter.
The hostages returned home in the first week of Reagan’s term. So, will history repeat itself to see President-elect Donald Trump dictate his policy and exercise American influence on the Iranian regime after an eight-year absence?
Before Barack Obama’s election, Iran had been besieged in the region as part of the US policy of containment. However, by the end of his tenure, Iran has emerged as a player that has besieged the region thanks to the nuclear deal, which has unleashed its political and military freedom. Now, Iran has started its interaction with President-elect Donald Trump with a warning. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that the Iranians would have other options if the US president-elect opted to pull out of the (nuclear) agreement.
The Iranian leadership’s concern about Trump’s victory has been vividly reflected in its statements and through the state-run media. Uneasy feelings were clear even in the Friday sermon delivered in Tehran, when cleric
Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami called on Trump to offer an apology and cautioned him against playing with “the tail of the Iranian lion!”
President-elect Trump had expressed his opposition to the nuclear deal during his election campaign by branding it as “the worst deal ever negotiated” and that it could lead to “a nuclear Holocaust.”
The question is: Were these statements just part of Trump’s presidential campaign rhetoric to attack his Democratic rival? Or Trump made those comments out of conviction that will be translated into policies.
We don’t know yet. But some Republican Party leaders previously criticized the agreement, and a number of the Republican lawmakers vetoed some of Obama’s bills, like the one regarding the sale of civil aircraft to Iran.
Iran’s foreign minister has the right to remind Trump that the nuclear deal with his country is an international deal — not a bilateral agreement — that was signed in Switzerland’s Lausanne with five other powers. However, Iran did not respect the agreement wholly by committing several violations, which is sufficient for freezing the deal partially, or accelerating the disagreements about it.
However, there is a truth that Iran received a generous and exceptional treatment from President Obama, yet it responded in an opposite manner that was reflected by its brutal practices in the region, like defying Obama’s calls for cooperation in Iraq and Syria. The Iranian leadership also treated Obama arrogantly when it detained American sailors and humiliated them on TV, and later it arrested Iranian-origin Americans who were visiting their relatives.
Skepticism about Tehran regime’s commitment to the nuclear deal has been increased by the country’s religious and military elite’s campaign against the Iranian President Rouhani and his camp, who are accused of opening up to the West as per the deal. That means the radicals want to take advantage of the part related to economy and trade only, while ignoring the clauses pertaining to mutual cooperation.
In addition to that Iran has increased its collaboration with Russia after the nuclear agreement, and the two countries are fighting together as allies in the disputed areas in the region. Russia even got military facilitations in Iran to increase its capabilities to operate in Syria, while Tehran clinched military and economic deals with Moscow. As a result, Iran capitalized on Obama’s generosity and tolerance by besieging the allies of the US in the Gulf region as well as Turkey and ignited wars in Syria and Yemen.
This is literally the scene, which Trump and his administration, which is being formed currently, are going to face. So, will the president-elect be satisfied with Obama’s legacy, particularly the nuclear deal? Will he accept the chaos Iran is causing in the region? Or, will he behave like late President Reagan by instantly confronting Tehran?
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Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran and internationally acclaimed columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel and ex-editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat.
* Originally published in Asharq Al-Awsat