President-elect Donald Trump has just made history. He takes the reign of power in 1600 Pennsylvania avenue at a particularly sensitive time in America’s position in the world.
At this very moment, a renewed Russian directed offensive is on the brink of being unleashed onto eastern Allepo. The offensive to liberate Raqqa is mired in complex geopolitical friction and the insistence of the PKK’s Syria arm to take the lead in the fight. Meanwhile, the fight to liberate Mosul grinds on, as casualties mount for the Iraqi Security Forces and Peshmarga fighters facing tough urban combat by an entrenched Daesh adversary.
Beyond the campaign rhetoric, little is known on what president-elect Trump’s foreign policy staff will actually implement once in power in terms of a Syria strategy. What is clear is that by the time Trump begins his role as commander in chief this January, there will have been precious little Syria policy left behind by the Obama administration for Trump and his foreign policy team to build upon.
President Trump would do well to take heed the sage counsel of Leon Panetta, former Secretary of Defense and Director of the CIA Leon Panetta, a man whom I had the pleasure of working under in the Pentagon years ago: “Inaction is not an option in Syria because if you stand back, the situation is gonna get worse.”
Despite the limited arial campaign in parts of northern Syria and Iraq, the current Obama White House policy of inaction will leave little maneuver room for the incoming Trump foreign policy administration. The Trump White House should take a hard look at a radical departure from the Obama administration’s ad hoc and hesitant foreign policy stance on Syria, which ultimately allowed Daesh to grow in size and stature both in Syria and Iraq.
First, the Trump administration should do away with Obama’s insistence of linking concessions to Iran with offering the Iranian regime’s external arm for terror operations carte blanche in Syria. As detailed by Wall Street Journal’s Jay Solomon seminal book “The Iran Wars,” the administration functionally offered Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s principle architect for regional destabilization in Syria and Iraq and the wider region, a free hand in Syria in exchange for the so called “nuclear deal” signed last year. Re-negotiate the Iran Deal and closing off pathways for Iran to gain the necessary cash and military spare parts to fuel its war effort in Syria is perhaps the most immediately effective position the Trump White House could take.
Second, the fight for Mosul should not be managed without investing serious attention to halting wanton Assad regime and Russian bombardment of Syrian civilians in northern Syria. The humanitarian crises and chaos borne by regime indiscriminate assaults will ultimately adversely impact any effort to put together a workable coalition and military strategy to defeat Daesh in northern and eastern Syria, as the fight in Mosul rages. Whether through new diplomatic approach to Moscow, or re-looking at the viability of covertly supplying limited amounts of anti aircraft weaponry to American and Arab aligned rebel groups, the Trump administration would do well to create real diplomatic leverage by attempting to shift the military balance on the ground.
Will there be political and military risk? Absolutely. But as President Obama’s failed Syria policy has proven so clearly, the price of inaction is exponentially higher in cost and only incurs greater risk to strategic interests in the long term.
Lastly, Trump should not lose sight of this new opportunity to build a lasting strategic partnership with Arab and Gulf allies in seeking a sustainable solution to Syria. The Obama White House’s prioritization of rapprochement with Iran, and narrow focus on partnering with sectarian Iraqi Shiite militias to fight Daesh is already proving disastrous. Trump has little time to turn the tide.
But with the right resolve and vision, there can be new hope that with new leadership in Washington, new creative and workable ways can be found to end the horrendous slaughter in Syria. Hopefully, Trump seizes the initiative so as not to repeat the mistakes of his predecessor.
• Oubai Shahbandar is a former Department of Defense senior adviser and currently a strategic communications consultant specializing in Middle Eastern and Gulf Affairs.
At this very moment, a renewed Russian directed offensive is on the brink of being unleashed onto eastern Allepo. The offensive to liberate Raqqa is mired in complex geopolitical friction and the insistence of the PKK’s Syria arm to take the lead in the fight. Meanwhile, the fight to liberate Mosul grinds on, as casualties mount for the Iraqi Security Forces and Peshmarga fighters facing tough urban combat by an entrenched Daesh adversary.
Beyond the campaign rhetoric, little is known on what president-elect Trump’s foreign policy staff will actually implement once in power in terms of a Syria strategy. What is clear is that by the time Trump begins his role as commander in chief this January, there will have been precious little Syria policy left behind by the Obama administration for Trump and his foreign policy team to build upon.
President Trump would do well to take heed the sage counsel of Leon Panetta, former Secretary of Defense and Director of the CIA Leon Panetta, a man whom I had the pleasure of working under in the Pentagon years ago: “Inaction is not an option in Syria because if you stand back, the situation is gonna get worse.”
Despite the limited arial campaign in parts of northern Syria and Iraq, the current Obama White House policy of inaction will leave little maneuver room for the incoming Trump foreign policy administration. The Trump White House should take a hard look at a radical departure from the Obama administration’s ad hoc and hesitant foreign policy stance on Syria, which ultimately allowed Daesh to grow in size and stature both in Syria and Iraq.
First, the Trump administration should do away with Obama’s insistence of linking concessions to Iran with offering the Iranian regime’s external arm for terror operations carte blanche in Syria. As detailed by Wall Street Journal’s Jay Solomon seminal book “The Iran Wars,” the administration functionally offered Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s principle architect for regional destabilization in Syria and Iraq and the wider region, a free hand in Syria in exchange for the so called “nuclear deal” signed last year. Re-negotiate the Iran Deal and closing off pathways for Iran to gain the necessary cash and military spare parts to fuel its war effort in Syria is perhaps the most immediately effective position the Trump White House could take.
Second, the fight for Mosul should not be managed without investing serious attention to halting wanton Assad regime and Russian bombardment of Syrian civilians in northern Syria. The humanitarian crises and chaos borne by regime indiscriminate assaults will ultimately adversely impact any effort to put together a workable coalition and military strategy to defeat Daesh in northern and eastern Syria, as the fight in Mosul rages. Whether through new diplomatic approach to Moscow, or re-looking at the viability of covertly supplying limited amounts of anti aircraft weaponry to American and Arab aligned rebel groups, the Trump administration would do well to create real diplomatic leverage by attempting to shift the military balance on the ground.
Will there be political and military risk? Absolutely. But as President Obama’s failed Syria policy has proven so clearly, the price of inaction is exponentially higher in cost and only incurs greater risk to strategic interests in the long term.
Lastly, Trump should not lose sight of this new opportunity to build a lasting strategic partnership with Arab and Gulf allies in seeking a sustainable solution to Syria. The Obama White House’s prioritization of rapprochement with Iran, and narrow focus on partnering with sectarian Iraqi Shiite militias to fight Daesh is already proving disastrous. Trump has little time to turn the tide.
But with the right resolve and vision, there can be new hope that with new leadership in Washington, new creative and workable ways can be found to end the horrendous slaughter in Syria. Hopefully, Trump seizes the initiative so as not to repeat the mistakes of his predecessor.
• Oubai Shahbandar is a former Department of Defense senior adviser and currently a strategic communications consultant specializing in Middle Eastern and Gulf Affairs.
