Two US embassies in Jerusalem are better than one

After two weeks in office, US President Donald Trump has managed to issue more controversial executive orders and statements than some presidents manage in a full term. Surprisingly by his standards, or maybe not, he almost went quiet on his campaign pledges to move the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and to support Jewish settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories.

It might be the effect of the sobering influence of King Abdullah of Jordan’s visit to Washington last week, talking to other leaders in the region, or even the out-of-control Israeli government announcements of the construction of thousands more new homes for Jewish settlers in the West Bank.

It is a long-standing tradition for US presidential candidates on the campaign trail to promise to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. It always seems like the right thing do in order to attract Israel-friendly votes. However, as traditional as it became to repeat this promise every four years, it is equally customary for these promises to be forgotten by both the elected president and voters the day after the elections, without too many hard feelings.

The Trump effect led many to believe that this time will be different. His unconventional approach to any topic, out of ignorance and hubris, left the impression that he was not promising this only for electioneering reasons.

It is also his obsession with firing off policies at a machine gun rate, aiming to wipe out his predecessor Barack Obama’s legacy, which gave some credence that this utterly irresponsible idea of moving the embassy to Jerusalem might become a reality. Adding to this impression was the appointment of settlement-friendly David Friedman as the next ambassador to Israel. Thus the logical conclusion was that moving the embassy to Jerusalem was imminent.

For now it seems his enthusiasm for this move has waned. Opposing the move of the embassy from Tel Aviv, where all the other embassies are located, to Jerusalem is not a rejection of the city being the capital of Israel as such. The caveat is that it will either serve as the capital of both of Israel and Palestine, or of neither.

Diplomats conduct their affairs in Jerusalem, and heads of state and other international political dignitaries also hold meetings with Israeli leaders in the city. Nevertheless, the UN partition plan of 1947 never recognized the city as either the capital of the Jewish state or of the Arab one; it was assigned to become a separate international regime. War and history left the plan as unfinished business, including the status of Jerusalem.

Consequently, throughout all peace negotiations since Oslo in 1993, it became evident that mutual recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of both Israel and Palestine is key to ending the conflict between the two. Unlike the partition plan, in which Jerusalem would have been the capital of neither, a genuine peace process should lead to it becoming the capital of both.

Any attempt to change the very fragile status quo in Jerusalem by recognizing the political rights of one side but not the other would cause Palestinian outrage within and outside Jerusalem, not to mention anger throughout the Muslim world.

Israel might see itself hard-done by the international community’s decision to contest its choice of capital. Whatever truth there is in this approach, there are unique circumstances surrounding this city that require a more complex approach that takes into account everyone’s religious and nationalistic sensitivities.

The key to a resolution of the conflict is mutual recognition of the historical and religious affinity of both toward the city. This should elevate Jerusalem to a city of peace, instead of one of tense status quo with frequent eruptions of violence.

There is no evidence that Trump is backtracking on any of his dangerous, and in most cases immoral, policies. There may not be a U-turn in the case of the Israeli-Palestinian issue, but there are a few obvious slight adjustments vis-à-vis settlement expansion and the moving of the US Embassy. 

However, if Trump manages to make good on his promise to be the dealmaker between the Israelis and Palestinians, he may have the opportunity to open not just one US Embassy in Jerusalem but hopefully two, in an undivided city as the capital of two independent states.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media.