These are bad times for the political arm of the Syrian opposition. There endemic divisions notwithstanding, now they fear that a US-Russian understanding may derail the one thing that keeps them together: The removal of President Bashar Assad.
The reality is that the Syrian opposition was never taken seriously by the US and Europe. Key figures found a safe haven in Turkey for years but now even Ankara is reviewing its stand on regional issues, including Syria, and may hasten the process of reconciling differences with neighbors following the botched military coup two weeks ago. Turkey’s possible flip-flop on Syria has rattled the Syrian opposition since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the staunchest supporter of their cause.
The diminishing importance of the opposition was detected early in the life of the Syrian crisis. Aside from the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a coalition of supposedly secular former officers in the Syrian army, the bulk of the opposition never held sway over a growing number of radical insurgents who had managed to occupy strategic territory in and around Aleppo, Idlib, Damascus countryside and the Golan among others. The radical groups struck a number of military alliances that included Jabhat Al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda’s proxy in Syria.
In the past two years, the influence of the FSA on the ground receded giving way to radical groups who feel no obligation to be part of any proposed political arrangements for the future of Syria.
Many of these radical groups, such as Jaish Al-Islam whose leader is a key member of the negotiating delegation, have been accused of committing atrocities against civilians and members of other rival groups. In fact only last week a so-called moderate group was accused of beheading a Palestinian child near Aleppo for allegedly fighting with the regime. The US threatened to withhold military aid to this group. But the fact remains that there are hundreds of small rebel factions, some of which are labeled as moderates, who owe no allegiance to the political opposition.
Aside from having no control over the rebel groups, the opposition has witnessed a number of internal divisions. Today there are at least three opposition blocs, with conflicting agendas, and differing ties to Moscow, Ankara, Riyadh, Cairo and even the Damascus regime. The latter has always argued that the exiled opposition lacks legitimacy and has no credentials when talking on behalf of the Syrian people.
But the latest shift is the most worrying for the Syrian opposition. The US and Russia appear to have reached an understanding on the fate of President Assad; one that allows him to stay in power during the transitional period probably with limited authority. It is a fact that Russia carries more sway over Syrian affairs than any other country. Its military intervention last year has altered the dynamics of the Syrian debacle. It has managed to direct attention from the removal of Assad to the war against Daesh and other rebel groups, particularly Al-Nusra Front.
With no clear strategy on Syria, the US slowly gravitated toward the Russian position. It is to become part of a bigger understanding between the two countries over many issues. For now the US priority in Syria has nothing to do with removing Assad or even ensuring the success of the negotiating process. That is why Washington has thrown its weight behind a new player, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is a well-armed Kurdish-led group that Washington hopes will become the spearhead in its effort to take Raqqa from Daesh. Currently the US-led coalition is busy providing air cover to SDF forces in the strategic town of Manbij, close to the Turkish borders.
In return, the US is looking the other way as regime forces complete the encirclement of Aleppo having successfully cut the last route between the besieged city and outside world. Despite repeated warnings that the fall of Aleppo, whose eastern part is controlled by FSA, will come at an enormous civilian cost, the US and its allies have done nothing to stop the daily carnage. Desperate pleas by the Syrian opposition to spare Aleppo have fallen on deaf ears. Syrian regime forces have also made some advances in the Damascus countryside and it is a matter of time before Duma, Daraya and other towns in eastern Ghouta are conquered.
These recent gains and the US-Russian understanding have emboldened Assad and despite a recent agreement by the regime to join political talks, probably in August, there are no signs that anything positive will emerge.
With President Erdogan focusing on a controversial internal purge of his political foes, the Syrian opposition can hardly rely on its Turkish benefactor. It is clear that it has lost the US backing and that with the diminishing role of the FSA it has no influence over what is happening on the ground as well. But what is also clear is that Damascus and Moscow have managed to debunk the myth of the so-called moderate rebel groups. The US-Russian understanding is a game changer and a bad omen for Syria’s opposition forces.
The reality is that the Syrian opposition was never taken seriously by the US and Europe. Key figures found a safe haven in Turkey for years but now even Ankara is reviewing its stand on regional issues, including Syria, and may hasten the process of reconciling differences with neighbors following the botched military coup two weeks ago. Turkey’s possible flip-flop on Syria has rattled the Syrian opposition since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the staunchest supporter of their cause.
The diminishing importance of the opposition was detected early in the life of the Syrian crisis. Aside from the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a coalition of supposedly secular former officers in the Syrian army, the bulk of the opposition never held sway over a growing number of radical insurgents who had managed to occupy strategic territory in and around Aleppo, Idlib, Damascus countryside and the Golan among others. The radical groups struck a number of military alliances that included Jabhat Al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda’s proxy in Syria.
In the past two years, the influence of the FSA on the ground receded giving way to radical groups who feel no obligation to be part of any proposed political arrangements for the future of Syria.
Many of these radical groups, such as Jaish Al-Islam whose leader is a key member of the negotiating delegation, have been accused of committing atrocities against civilians and members of other rival groups. In fact only last week a so-called moderate group was accused of beheading a Palestinian child near Aleppo for allegedly fighting with the regime. The US threatened to withhold military aid to this group. But the fact remains that there are hundreds of small rebel factions, some of which are labeled as moderates, who owe no allegiance to the political opposition.
Aside from having no control over the rebel groups, the opposition has witnessed a number of internal divisions. Today there are at least three opposition blocs, with conflicting agendas, and differing ties to Moscow, Ankara, Riyadh, Cairo and even the Damascus regime. The latter has always argued that the exiled opposition lacks legitimacy and has no credentials when talking on behalf of the Syrian people.
But the latest shift is the most worrying for the Syrian opposition. The US and Russia appear to have reached an understanding on the fate of President Assad; one that allows him to stay in power during the transitional period probably with limited authority. It is a fact that Russia carries more sway over Syrian affairs than any other country. Its military intervention last year has altered the dynamics of the Syrian debacle. It has managed to direct attention from the removal of Assad to the war against Daesh and other rebel groups, particularly Al-Nusra Front.
With no clear strategy on Syria, the US slowly gravitated toward the Russian position. It is to become part of a bigger understanding between the two countries over many issues. For now the US priority in Syria has nothing to do with removing Assad or even ensuring the success of the negotiating process. That is why Washington has thrown its weight behind a new player, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is a well-armed Kurdish-led group that Washington hopes will become the spearhead in its effort to take Raqqa from Daesh. Currently the US-led coalition is busy providing air cover to SDF forces in the strategic town of Manbij, close to the Turkish borders.
In return, the US is looking the other way as regime forces complete the encirclement of Aleppo having successfully cut the last route between the besieged city and outside world. Despite repeated warnings that the fall of Aleppo, whose eastern part is controlled by FSA, will come at an enormous civilian cost, the US and its allies have done nothing to stop the daily carnage. Desperate pleas by the Syrian opposition to spare Aleppo have fallen on deaf ears. Syrian regime forces have also made some advances in the Damascus countryside and it is a matter of time before Duma, Daraya and other towns in eastern Ghouta are conquered.
These recent gains and the US-Russian understanding have emboldened Assad and despite a recent agreement by the regime to join political talks, probably in August, there are no signs that anything positive will emerge.
With President Erdogan focusing on a controversial internal purge of his political foes, the Syrian opposition can hardly rely on its Turkish benefactor. It is clear that it has lost the US backing and that with the diminishing role of the FSA it has no influence over what is happening on the ground as well. But what is also clear is that Damascus and Moscow have managed to debunk the myth of the so-called moderate rebel groups. The US-Russian understanding is a game changer and a bad omen for Syria’s opposition forces.
