During the election season, role of Muslims becomes the most talked about issue in the media. The recently concluded assembly elections were no exception.
The only assembly where presence of Muslims could be sensed is Delhi. Of the 70 members in Delhi assembly, five are Muslims. Four of them belong to the Congress and one is from the Janata Dal- United (JD-U). Muslims constitute around 11.7 percent of Delhi’s population. In case of Chhattisgarh, Muslims constitute only one percent of the total population so the election results should not surprise anyone. Despite the fact that Muslims constitute 8 percent of the total populations in Rajasthan as well as Madhya Pradesh, the new assemblies of both states include only three Muslim legislators. Two belong to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from Rajasthan and one is from the Congress in Madhya Pradesh.
Ironically, 50 percent of the Congress’ total strength in Delhi is represented by four of its Muslim legislators as the grand old party managed to secure only eight seats in Delhi. Would it be fair to assume that had the Congress not fielded these Muslim candidates, the outcome might have been more mind-boggling for the party?
More than 100 Muslims from different parties were in the fray for Delhi assembly. Interestingly, despite having performed miserably in these assembly elections, the only claim that Congress can make confidently is that it played its “Muslim card” wisely. Had Congress refrained from fielding these Muslims or had it lost seats contested by these candidates, the party would have had less than five members in the 70-member assembly. This situation calls for an in-depth analysis of the role of the Muslim card in Indian elections. Traditionally, Delhi had remained a battleground for the Congress and the BJP. It is the arrival of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) that has changed the situation. In the 70-member Delhi assembly, the BJP has won 31 seats, AAP – 28, Congress — 8 and others — three. Had the BJP won more than 35 seats, there would not have been any deliberations on formation of the next Delhi state government. It would be correct to say that this time around the contest was between the AAP and the BJP with the Congress posing almost no threat to either of them.
This should have sent alarm bells ringing for the Congress, as it is evident that Delhi voters have had enough of Congress and are looking for alternatives. The remarkable performance of the AAP in its debut year also indicates that BJP’s campaign leader, Narendra Modi’s “magic wand” failed to have any significant impact in Delhi. Till the very last minute of campaigning, political calculations strongly rested on whether the Modi-fever would turn the political tide in BJP’s favor or not. But as soon as the results started surfacing, Modi’s name was hardly mentioned. Delhi poll outcome was decided by the AAP’s emergence. Modi’s electoral campaign failed to ensure a thumping majority for his party here. It is possible that the communal image of Modi, linked with the Gujarat pogrom, prompted many voters to vote for the AAP.
Though BJP has emerged the winner in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, Modi has not been credited by all party leaders for this success. Madhya Pradesh assembly elections are perhaps the perfect example of how the State Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s “secular” drive toward Muslims helped the BJP return to power here for the third consecutive term. Chauhan laid the foundation stone of a Haj House this April, he wore the skull-cap (worn by Indian Muslims) while joining Muslims in celebration of Eid-Al-Fitr and allotted land for construction of an Urdu university.
In the 230-member Madhya Pradesh assembly, the BJP has returned to power with 165 seats. There is a view that had Modi not been BJP’s campaign leader, Chauhan would have helped his party secure more seats. Chauhan’s third consecutive victory in Madhya Pradesh has raised his stature within his own party. This position was earlier enjoyed only by Modi, who has helped the BJP making a hat trick in Gujarat. One should not be surprised by “rumors” making the rounds that Chauhan may replace Modi as BJP’s prime ministerial hopeful.
Email: [email protected]
