In a surprising report, Israel’s Foreign Ministry says that sanctions imposed on Iran are having dramatic impact. According to Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman the destructive impact of sanctions has created more and more domestic resentment in Iran. Over the last months Iran has suffered from a 50 percent decline in the volume of oil exports, according to the report.
Admittedly, Israel fears the Iranian nuclear program lest Tehran goes nuclear. A plethora of statements and warnings uttered by Israel leaders over the last two years has created the feeling that Israel would do what it takes to reverse Iran’s nuclear program. In fact, Israel’s high sense of urgency has pushed its leaders to threaten to strike Iran militarily regardless of the strategic consequences on the region. From the get-go, successive Israeli governments made it perfectly clear that economic sanction would not have the desired outcome and would not deter Iranian leaders from following up their nuclear program.
Against this backdrop, the report is surprising! Israel’s demands to the European Union to impose an additional round of sanctions sound as if Israel has started seeing the impact of sanctions on the Iranian domestic scene positively. Belligerent statements articulated by senior officials in Netanyahu’s government have created the impression that an Israeli militarily strike was a slam dunk. Interestingly, the internal political and social scene in Tehran is grabbing the attention of the Israeli government as a potential game changer. A revolution — like the one in Egypt and Tunisia — in Iran would be welcome by Israelis. In Lieberman’s words, “There is more and more domestic resentment there. This will result in an early election for the (Iranian) presidency. The Iranian leadership is also feeling this and is therefore escalating its rhetoric.”
To comprehend the magnitude of sanctions, it is worth looking at the economic situation in Iran. Just a year ago, Iran’s export of oil reached 2.4 million barrels a day. And yet, sanctions imposed on Iran helped cut this figure to a mere one million barrels a day. The report estimates that Iran’s revenue from oil has also decreased by $ 40 billion since the beginning of 2012. This economic situation will be agonizing in months to come and then Iranian leaders will need to think of alternatives and perhaps change some policies. Otherwise, Iranian leaders need to get ready for a possible backlash that may further weaken the regime.
Although Iranians are feeling the pinch of the outcome of sanctions, one can hardly spot a change in the position of top leaders — chief among them the supreme leader Ali Khamenei — concerning the contentious nuclear program. Encouraged by the increasingly narrowing room of maneuverability for Iranian leaders, Israeli top officials think of mobilizing the international community to impose further stinging round of sanctions. They hope Iranian leaders would either soften their stance on the nuclear program or alternatively face the rage of Iranian people in months to come.
Now the P5 plus one talks with Iranian officials is in a stalemate. Iran has systematically used the talks to get out of sanctions without offering any serious compromise on its nuclear program. The international community’s demand that Iranian negotiate in good faith fell on deaf ears in Tehran. Seen in this light, Iran may continue its stonewalling tactics until the end. Nonetheless, Iranian leaders’ ability to stand the international pressure and the sanction regime is waning. Given the unity among Europeans and Americans on the issue of sanctions, Tehran will soon realize that the game is over. It is premature to predict Iranians’ behavior in tomorrow’s new round of negotiations with P5 plus one; but the major powers’ realization of Iran’s increasing economic suffering will reflect on their stance.
In brief, instead of pounding the drums of war, Israelis have started thinking of sanctions and diplomatic means of dealing with the nuclear program with Iran. If Iran gives in, this will foil the possibility of war that would benefit no one in the region.
