Just as we predicted a couple of weeks ago, two usual suspects will contest the 2014 World Cup final. And in the case of Germany and Argentina, it’s even more usual: These two countries will meet in the decisive match for the third time, more than any other nations and they will also resume the dominance of the so-called Big Four in world football — apart from South Africa 2010, every final in the history of the tournament has been contested by either Argentina, Brazil, Germany or Italy. Thus, in no way the pairing of these two giants should come as a surprise. Germany and Argentina are deserved finalists, although they way they have arrived to the last battle has been quite different.

The Germans have reasons to be feeling pretty confident. Despite the 2-2 draw with Ghana in the group stage and the tight 2-1 victory over Algeria in the round of 16, they have arguably been the best team in this competition even before the historical events of Belo Horizonte. The way Joachim Low’s men disposed of France in Rio in the quarterfinals showed professionalism, organization and grit where necessary, but it all became irrelevant in comparison to the merciless way they inflicted Brazil their worst ever defeat, made even worse because it happened in front of the Seleção own fans.

It would be very unfair to take anything away from the Germans in that game. True, Luiz Felipe Scolari could have life a bit more difficult to the Mannschaft had he adopted the obvious plan of trying to disrupt their flow and movements by crowding midfield with the use of three holding players. Instead, the 2002 World Cup winner disgraced himself by ignoring all advice, including the one received from the observers he sent to Germany games and fielded up a side where winger Bernard replaced Neymar and there were more gaps than a slice of Swiss cheese. Germany said thanks and went on to humiliate Brazil with a lesson of organization, passing, movement — everything we always expected from the boys in yellow.

Brazil paid for their naivety and arrogance. They had not been playing well in the tournament and 30 minutes against Colombia in the quarterfinals were the best they could do. Relying too much on Neymar and set-pieces, they dragged themselves to the semifinals and to think they could just intimidate Germany with history and tradition can even be described as sheer stupidity. It will be a miracle if they are able to offer proper resistance to Holland in the 3rd place match this Saturday, even after Louis Van Gaal pretty much said the Dutch are not bothered about that game.

So Germany are hot favorites to win at the Maracanã and few would bet against them. However, Low’s men are in for a battle. Argentina will not simply roll down and die. Alejandro Sabella’s team had a very shaky start and Lionel Messi bailed them out in all their group games to compensate for a lack of creativity and a fragile defense but things started to click after their 1-0 win against Switzerland after 120 minutes. Against Belgium, Argentina look transformed and even though Messi didn’t score he once again proved to be the center of their team — his critics seem to have forgotten Gonzalo Higuain’s goal was pretty much an opportunity created by a Messi move. Holland were much better opponents but Argentina had gathered enough confidence to face them. And unlike Brazil they admitted their limitations. Thanks to a reinvigorated defense in the form of De Michellis and Garay, Argentina played the waiting game: shut down the spaces for Robben and Co. while waiting for Messi to do something special.

He didn’t produce it thanks to wonderful marking by Van Gaal’s men but Argentina didn’t suffer either. On penalties, they did a better job and now are staring not only at a third World Cup title but also at a precious chance to score a huge point in their banter game with Brazilians. Not even the 7-1 drubbing has broken as many Brazilian hearts as the sight of Messi lifting the trophy at the Maracanã would. Argentina can do it because Messi is a genius. But they have been depleted by injuries and the loss of Di Maria has hurt them badly. Still, the passion of the players will be fuelled by the fanatic support provided by the hordes of fans that have made their way to Brazil in this tournament. The Maracanã will be a cauldron on Sunday and Germany are not be the “home” team. That atmosphere can lift the spirits of the Argentine players and multiply their forces.

Logic dictates Thomas Müller and Co. will break Germany’s trophy hoodoo and win their first title since Euro 1996. But Argentina will fight to the end. Bet against them at your own risk.

(Fernando Duarte is a Brazilian football writer and author of “Shocking Brazil: Six Games That Shook the World Cup” Birlinn Books.)