The World Bank, the IMF, the Bank of England, 600 economists and CEOs of multi-national corporations all agree that if Britain quits the European Union it will experience a drop in GDP, growth, investments and jobs, not to mention the value of the Sterling pound — and it could rattle the global economy.
Moreover, international companies are likely to relocate to a European capital. And if the EU chooses to impose trade tariffs on British goods, “Made in the UK” products will be less competitive. But, unfortunately, those battling to leave have dismissed all warnings from experts as “scaremongering” as though those urging Britain to remain are members of a political conspiracy designed to manipulate the British public into choosing to remain on June 23.
The bad news is, as reported by the Independent newspaper, polls indicate “a massive swing to Brexit” with 55 percent of voters intending to vote “Leave” whereas a year ago “Remain” was leading by 10 percent. Polls notoriously get it wrong and it could be that voters will get cold feet when push comes to shove.
An exit will also have implications for Britain’s security in terms of securing borders and intelligence sharing. Secretary-General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg warns Brexit will result in “a more fragmented security environment in Europe…The EU and NATO need a strong UK in terms of their relationship with the US and to bolster military cooperation.” Five former NATO chiefs and 13 former US secretaries of state and defense ministers have echoed his words.
David Cameron is in panic mode. He admits to sleepless nights worrying about the outcome. Not only is his country’s future on the line, so is his own. His party is split and if things don’t pan out his way, it’s probable he will face a leadership challenge. With just 10 days to go before the referendum, he has organized a series of Town Halls in a last ditch effort to persuade undecided voters to remain.
He speaks with uncharacteristic passion. I’ve never been one of his admirers but I cringe while watching the disrespect shown to him by some in the audiences. One lip-ringed young woman called him “Dodgy Dave” to his face. He comes across as a desperate man. I would feel sorry for him except that over the years, he has flip-flopped on the issue and he was the one who proposed this referendum in the first place to placate Conservative Party elites. He is likely ruing his decision as the worst one he has made in his life. And I fear that the country’s young people will be made to pay the price with fewer opportunities and higher taxes to supplement treasury losses.
In my view it would be madness to voluntarily withdraw from a single market consisting of 28 countries offering access to a population of over half-a-billion — and more so for the UK which enjoys all the benefits without having to join the Schengen area or the single currency. So what is it that’s fueling this suicidal sway?
One of the arguments for leaving is that British taxpayers fund the EU to the tune of 350 million pounds weekly. “We send the EU £350m” is daubed large across the Leave campaign’s buses. That is not so thanks to Margaret Thatcher’s tough negotiation skills, Britain pays less than one percent of its annual budget to the EU and receives substantial rebates. Last year the rebate amounted to almost five billion. All member countries are obliged to contribute and all, including the UK, benefit from EU spending.
Another argument rests on recapturing Britain’s sovereignty as though it has ever lost it. Many Britons resent being told what to do by suits in Brussels.
However, most of those eager to get out appear to be motivated by nationalism and xenophobia rather than by economics. In that regard, the Leave camp has done some fear mongering of its own with a prediction that if Britain stays it will eventually be overrun with Turks.
The swing factor is immigration. A friend in the UK who lived abroad for most of his adult life told me he is voting to leave because he was kept waiting at the till of his local supermarket by two staff members having a conversation in Polish!
Britain has absorbed more than a million eastern Europeans over the past 10 years since the EU expansion, many doing jobs Britons don’t want. Will they be forced out on mass if the “Leavers” get their wish? What’s overlooked is that between 1.3 and 1.8 Britons live and work in Europe; three-quarters of whom are residents of Spain enjoying visa-less stays and free health care.
Several heads of state, including President Obama, have hinted that Britain’s influence on the world’s stage will be diminished if it pulls out and he's warned that the UK could be placed at the back of the queue with regards to a trade deal. His opinion only served to enrage the Leavers who considered it to be gross interference in the UK’s affairs.
June 23 could turn out to be one of the saddest days in Britain’s history, a self-inflicted knife in the foot impacting generations to come. In the meantime, I’m keeping my fingers crossed hoping for the best. I suspect Cameron is doing the same.
Moreover, international companies are likely to relocate to a European capital. And if the EU chooses to impose trade tariffs on British goods, “Made in the UK” products will be less competitive. But, unfortunately, those battling to leave have dismissed all warnings from experts as “scaremongering” as though those urging Britain to remain are members of a political conspiracy designed to manipulate the British public into choosing to remain on June 23.
The bad news is, as reported by the Independent newspaper, polls indicate “a massive swing to Brexit” with 55 percent of voters intending to vote “Leave” whereas a year ago “Remain” was leading by 10 percent. Polls notoriously get it wrong and it could be that voters will get cold feet when push comes to shove.
An exit will also have implications for Britain’s security in terms of securing borders and intelligence sharing. Secretary-General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg warns Brexit will result in “a more fragmented security environment in Europe…The EU and NATO need a strong UK in terms of their relationship with the US and to bolster military cooperation.” Five former NATO chiefs and 13 former US secretaries of state and defense ministers have echoed his words.
David Cameron is in panic mode. He admits to sleepless nights worrying about the outcome. Not only is his country’s future on the line, so is his own. His party is split and if things don’t pan out his way, it’s probable he will face a leadership challenge. With just 10 days to go before the referendum, he has organized a series of Town Halls in a last ditch effort to persuade undecided voters to remain.
He speaks with uncharacteristic passion. I’ve never been one of his admirers but I cringe while watching the disrespect shown to him by some in the audiences. One lip-ringed young woman called him “Dodgy Dave” to his face. He comes across as a desperate man. I would feel sorry for him except that over the years, he has flip-flopped on the issue and he was the one who proposed this referendum in the first place to placate Conservative Party elites. He is likely ruing his decision as the worst one he has made in his life. And I fear that the country’s young people will be made to pay the price with fewer opportunities and higher taxes to supplement treasury losses.
In my view it would be madness to voluntarily withdraw from a single market consisting of 28 countries offering access to a population of over half-a-billion — and more so for the UK which enjoys all the benefits without having to join the Schengen area or the single currency. So what is it that’s fueling this suicidal sway?
One of the arguments for leaving is that British taxpayers fund the EU to the tune of 350 million pounds weekly. “We send the EU £350m” is daubed large across the Leave campaign’s buses. That is not so thanks to Margaret Thatcher’s tough negotiation skills, Britain pays less than one percent of its annual budget to the EU and receives substantial rebates. Last year the rebate amounted to almost five billion. All member countries are obliged to contribute and all, including the UK, benefit from EU spending.
Another argument rests on recapturing Britain’s sovereignty as though it has ever lost it. Many Britons resent being told what to do by suits in Brussels.
However, most of those eager to get out appear to be motivated by nationalism and xenophobia rather than by economics. In that regard, the Leave camp has done some fear mongering of its own with a prediction that if Britain stays it will eventually be overrun with Turks.
The swing factor is immigration. A friend in the UK who lived abroad for most of his adult life told me he is voting to leave because he was kept waiting at the till of his local supermarket by two staff members having a conversation in Polish!
Britain has absorbed more than a million eastern Europeans over the past 10 years since the EU expansion, many doing jobs Britons don’t want. Will they be forced out on mass if the “Leavers” get their wish? What’s overlooked is that between 1.3 and 1.8 Britons live and work in Europe; three-quarters of whom are residents of Spain enjoying visa-less stays and free health care.
Several heads of state, including President Obama, have hinted that Britain’s influence on the world’s stage will be diminished if it pulls out and he's warned that the UK could be placed at the back of the queue with regards to a trade deal. His opinion only served to enrage the Leavers who considered it to be gross interference in the UK’s affairs.
June 23 could turn out to be one of the saddest days in Britain’s history, a self-inflicted knife in the foot impacting generations to come. In the meantime, I’m keeping my fingers crossed hoping for the best. I suspect Cameron is doing the same.
