Contrary to what one might think 2014 was a relatively safe year for flying. There have been only 8 hull accidents as compared to 24 in 2005, which is seen as the bleakest in the past 30 years.
Yet, to most people the loss of Indonesia AirAsia Flight QZ8501 at the yearend would be tantamount as the final proof to one of the worst years in civil aviation.
That is the irony. “The statistics underscore a year of tragic contrasts dominated by two Malaysian catastrophes and a handful of weather-related incidents, yet a record-low number of crashes.”
They say statistics lie but still tell a story. Technically even though as high as 920 people have lost their lives (including those on board the Indonesian flight) in the number of crashes per million flights this is the lowest in recent years. So, if you put it onto a graph 2014 would be a good year for aviation safety. In fact, one could go as far as to say it was the safest year in modern history and still be seen as accurate.
In 2005 the death toll was 1,014 passengers and crew.
It is the odd nature of the crashes in this year that cause the paradox.
Yet, in the past three decades flying has become safer. Thirty years ago, fatal accidents on commercial jetliners occurred approximately once in every 140 million miles flown. Today, it’s 1.4 billion miles flown for every fatal accident — a tenfold safety improvement. There is no other high-tech field that can boast such a steep improvement.
The one area, which needs looking into, is Air Traffic Control. Much of the equipment in these towers in many countries is obsolete and badly funded. The hard working controllers who burn out fast under the pressure are the unglamorous end of commercial aviation but to them belongs the responsibility of keeping planes apart and landing and taking off without incident.
One report states: “The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the International Federation of Airline Pilots Associations (IFALPA), the Flight Safety Foundation, manufacturers and others are working together to reduce accident numbers. National governments around the world are reviewing an ICAO safety program that will focus safety-related activities on those initiatives that offer the best safety dividends in terms of reducing the accident rate.
“Several countries have established national programs to tailor safety programs that best meet their needs. In US, for example, airlines, aviation associations, labor unions, government agencies and manufacturers have joined the FAA in a Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) that is working to achieve an 80 percent reduction in fatal crashes.”
Unfortunately, aviation is a global non-boundary mode of travel and depends on its weakest link on any route. This link encompasses the best and the worst and this is where rub lies. Regrettably, some airports on routes are unsafe and poorly coordinated. Outdated equipment is only one of the problems. Language is another and communications between pilots and ATC which is crucial to safety is often a hope we heard it right’ toss up.
Again, contrary to general belief, aircraft often fly blind in that they are not in touch for large swathes of time with ground control. Although only 5 percent of the sky is used for traffic lanes there is a need for upgrading airfields and runways and bringing them onto par. Today a flight can hop from a Cat III level airport to one that is almost vintage in technology and this can disorient pilots seeing as how landing and takeoff are the most sensitive parts of a flight. Often enough perimeter security is compromised by animals, domesticated and wild. In bad weather aquaplaning caused by water on the runway creates a skid possibility. Birds are an ongoing hazard. The weather, clear air turbulence, wind shear adds to the problems. Yet, planes take off and land at the rate of over 100,000 a day. In fact 2014 is the first time the average of 100,000 was crossed with 37.4 million flights scheduled for the year. And they serve over 48,000 routes globally. That is some network. According to one report, there are 1,397 commercial airlines out there, owning a total of 25,332 aircraft which is why when Boeing and Airbus pretend to compete for the market they don’t want more than 50 percent because there is enough to go around.
