As I expected, the initiative of Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, the UN special envoy for Yemen, to resolve the Yemeni conflict enjoyed the support of various parties with the 48-hour cease-fire being the first test of the initiative.
Although key figures in the legitimate government and others have criticized the initiative, I still believe it is a good one. However, I doubt it will succeed — not because President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s men criticized it, but rather because the rebels will make it fail.
The initiative emphasizes the regime’s legitimacy and power, calling on the rebels to hand over their heavy weapons and withdraw both from the capital and from major cities. In return, a moderate, unanimously chosen vice president will be appointed and will wield most of the presidential powers.
In the initiative, the rebels backed away from most of their major demands. Earlier, they had demanded a new rebel-controlled regime, the exclusion of President Hadi from government, keeping their weapons, integrating their militias into state institutions, and maintaining the territories they have seized. All these demands were rejected.
They gained only two things from the initiative: Their existence will not be denied and their light weapons will not be taken from them on the grounds that most Yemenis were normally armed before the war. They were also promised the right to participate in the government, something that was granted to them before the coup.
Regarding the reasons why President Hadi’s team opposed the peace plan, it seems to me there were reasons: First, US Secretary of State John Kerry was wrong not to communicate with Hadi directly but instead he sent messages with others. To be fair, this is something for which Kerry apologized. The other reason, I imagine, was that Hadi considered granting most of his powers to a vice president as sidelining him.
In fact, the president knows — more than anyone else — that the Yemeni forces and allies have stood behind him during very difficult circumstances; they are fighting a war in order to preserve the state and the form of governance, which was agreed upon by Yemenis under the direct supervision of the United Nations. And Hadi’s post as president, is temporary, limited to only two years until elections — which the rebels have prevented.
Since they orchestrated their coup, ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Houthis have been trying to remove Hadi from power. Everyone insisted, however, on keeping him as a symbol of legitimacy. The new initiative keeps him as president, but with only a few powers. This is because so few representatives of the government exist, and his government is still in exile despite its so-called return to Aden. And also because the country is in a large-scale war that has disrupted government services and infrastructure.
The president’s powers have remained limited and would be even fewer after the end of the war if the initiative succeeded in saving lives and bringing about peace. No effective government can exist unless the constitution is written and comprehensive elections are held. Thus, President Hadi will not lose a number of his powers. With Hadi remaining in his post, the rebels will fail to achieve their first condition, which is his removal from power.
Civil wars often end, either in reconciliation or with the warring parties continuing the fight until the country is torn apart. The war in Afghanistan, a country, which is very similar to Yemen in terrain and social structure, has continued for 15 years and the United States is still fighting the Taliban.
The world’s superpower has been unable to conclude the war, despite its strength and the large military alliance involved with it in the fighting. This is not because it is difficult for the Americans to crush their opponents, but because what is required is the submission of all forces to a central authority. The Americans have not succeeded in this, despite ongoing negotiations and fighting with the Taliban.
Almost two terrible years of war in Yemen have passed. During that period, Yemen has been saved from the grip of the rebels who seized the whole country. And without the military intervention, the country would be spinning in the Iranian orbit, and would have turned into a hotbed of chronic tribal and regional conflicts.
During that period, legitimacy, which was absent in Yemen, has been maintained and transferred to neighboring Saudi Arabia where it has gained global diplomatic support. To maintain legitimacy, a major war has been launched, which has resulted in freeing more than half of Yemeni territories and restructuring the legitimate authority.
It is possible that the two sides will continue fighting for 15 more years, but why? The rebels who have tried to rule alone have failed whereas before they were a party in power and in government. Accepting the initiative means that the rebels will hand over their heavy weapons, withdraw from the cities and take part in Hadi’s government — which means they have lost what they were counting on their arms to bring them.
Those who object to the involvement of rebels and Saleh’s militias, seeing this as a betrayal of all that has been sacrificed, are wrong. There was never any vow to deprive opponents of political participation; this was not an aim of the war. Rather, the target is to return the legitimate government, of which the rebels were part, and they along with the Yemeni people have paid a heavy price because of the coup.
The aim of the war is to achieve peace, not to destroy the other side. Let us hope that the initiative will succeed in stopping the bloodshed and restoring stability to Yemen.
• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran journalist and internationally acclaimed columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel and ex-editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat.
* Originally published in Asharq Al-Awsat
