Backed by the Saudi-led coalition, the Yemeni army has surprisingly stormed Saada and even extended its grip in the province, which the Houthis consider their stronghold. Yemeni Vice President Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar flew to Saada in a symbolic gesture by the legitimate government to underscore the importance of the move.
A year and a half ago, the rebels said Al-Ahmar’s departure from Yemen was permanent and marked the end of the republic. However, developments on the ground have proved otherwise as coalition forces and Yemeni troops have achieved victories on different fronts.
The western port city of Al-Mokha was liberated, backed by air and land support that helped Yemeni troops regain control of Bab Al-Mandab. Progress in Taiz, which witnessed street-to-street battles, and Al-Baidaa province has also been reported. The Yemeni army is now in control of most of the eastern coast, which has been an entry route for smuggling Iranian weapons to Houthi rebels.
The rebels are finding it difficult to infiltrate the naval siege, as naval forces have intensified their campaign against ships and boats that smuggle weapons. These coinciding victories are politically significant, as they will encourage hesitant countries to back the legitimate government. Yemen will be a litmus test for the new US administration’s policy on Iran.
Politically, the UN envoy has again proposed a long truce and negotiations for a peaceful solution. The Houthis and deposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s troops want to maneuver, as the Houthis have not yet accepted the international peace initiative. They insist that all of the president’s powers be delegated to the vice president, which weakens and jeopardizes the initiative, thus destroying their chance to share power.
Most likely, the Houthis’ stubborn attitude is just an echo of the stance of Iran, which played a major role in sparking the war and backing the rebels’ military, diplomatic and propaganda activities. Tehran is pressing for a role in talks, with the intention of letting down its allies in Yemen in a potential regional bargain.
Given that the legitimate government has regained 80 percent of Yemen, the rebels’ choices have become limited. Now they have only a small window for a peaceful solution if they opt for reconciliation and political partnership. However, this window will be shut when a full military takeover is imminent.
The losses incurred by the rebels, whose troops are mainly stationed in Sanaa, have negatively affected their internal relations. The collaborators, who conspired to seize Yemen, have been hit by discord in every aspect of governance, including their chants. The Houthis have borrowed Iranian chants “Death to America” and “Death to Israel,” which Yemenis are mocking. Saleh’s followers have adopted a different but no less hypocritical chant, “One Yemen, One people,” after they tore apart the country and its people.
Sanaa will be the ground for the final, but not the decisive, battle. This is because the rebels’ state project has failed after losing most of the territories, and being unable to manage the alternative government or even move the country’s last institution, the central bank, to Aden, which has been the capital since President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi returned after leaving his exile in Saudi Arabia.
Military gains are leading to important breakthroughs in Yemen’s war, which has been ongoing for one and a half years, less than other regional wars such as Syria and Afghanistan. The Yemeni people have suffered much due to the rebellion, with the rebels seizing the country’s capacities and entire resources.
•Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya News Channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published.
