The absence of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov from the Middle East can only signal one thing. Russia is trying to put off the flames at its borders that it forgot to ignite fire in Syria. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the battle for Ukraine is the most important one where effort, time and money are at utmost need. Syria, in Russia’s perspective, is a small battle for Russia in land so far away.
Until today, we don’t know why Russians played such a negative or rather destructive role during the three years of this ugly war. Assad wasn’t a real ally for Moscow and Syria wasn’t a strategic country to Russia. Even the marine port of Tartus was just a place for the Russian battleships easily replaced by Greece. The opponents of the Syrian regimes were not at odds with Russia, either.
From the Kremlin, Putin hoped the Gulf states would not push for a decline in oil prices, in a surprising statement. The Gulf, definitely, is not aiming to intervene in the oil market or lower the prices. However, the region sent an unprecedented wave of hate against Russia. It is, after all, responsible for the massacre in Syria. In the nations’ mind, this kind of legacy is not easily forgotten.
The Russian government supported Assad militantly and economically, and vetoed any resolution that aimed at highlighting its crimes in the Security Council. The Russian propaganda machine reiterated its claims that it stands against the terrorist groups fighting in Syria. However, the truth is not hidden. Nations know that the Syrian regime insinuated these groups to terrorize the Syrian people and scare the West. Not only that, the West offered Russia to join hands in fighting Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, especially those coming from the Russian surroundings, to ensure that the Free Army is not related to these terrorist groups.
Anyways, Syria has become a marginal issue to the Russians. This is why we don’t see Lavrov in the region anymore. Ukraine was lost to the West, i.e. Europe, in a battle than can take up years using militant, intelligence, diplomatic, economic, and media means.
The question remains, will the Russian absence benefit the Syrian cause? Maybe but not now. The Iranian side is the most involved party in the Syrian war and not Assad’s regime, but Iran will be definitely get tired due to Russian absence. The Iranian decision to raise fuel prices for the first time in decades is a clear sign that Iran is weakened by this burden. It also seems that the decreased sanctions on Iran weren’t helpful to Iran. The Iranian suffering stemmed mostly from its involvement in costly war in Syria.
This will be reflected on the Iranian economy. Lifting the governmental support on fuel in Iran will only add to its problems. The formal propaganda that hoped to charge the people with feelings of enthusiasm and nationalism didn’t work in convincing Iranians of the importance of fighting in Syria. People, still attack the Iranian intervention, and refuse to believe that the protection of Assad’s regime is a religious duty, a matter of a national necessity and an attempt to stop the great conspiracy against Iran. The Russian exit will increase the burden on Iran and on Assad subsequently. The final bullet Iran can shoot is at the opposition to prevent any potential of alternatives for Assad. This is a game Iran perfected in Lebanon and is feared to succeed in Syria.
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