Russian-built warplanes reportedly dropped thousands of leaflets, which read “Leave or Die,” on the hundreds of thousands of inhabitants in besieged Aleppo, “You know that everyone has left you alone to face your doom."
This wasn’t a mere attempt at psychological warfare. The terse warnings of Assad and Putin’s henchmen happened to be correct. Left to their doom at the mercy of an Assad war machine, the Syrian people who rejected the dictates of the illegitimate regime in Damascus in a civil uprising in 2011 have been functionally abandoned to their fate by the international community.
The military campaign plan to encircle Aleppo city was first put into action by Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s field commanders who began taking operational command of Assad’s forces on the Aleppo front by mid-2012. The strategy tracked along a tested Iranian and Hezbollah operational mindset: Develop sustained lines of communication and supply lines, steadily encircle the opponent, cut off any means of resupply and patiently use overwhelming air and artillery firepower to soften defensive lines.
Boosted in the recent weeks by a reinforcement of a significant payload of Russian military hardware, the Assad-Iranian penetration of opposition defenses in eastern Aleppo was the culmination of years of preparation.
But what does it all portend? First, the imminent fall of Aleppo is a cruel judgment of the failure of the US foreign policy and indeed that of the Arab coalition. The failure to shift the military balance on the ground in Syria means that the regime and the Shiite extremist militia network aided and funded by Iran will only be further emboldened. That outcome presents a unique security threat to the interests of the US and its Arab allies.
Secondly, the devastation faced by Syrian civilians in Aleppo due to non-stop indiscriminate bombardment by Russian, Assad and Iranian weaponry essentially re-defines the norms of the international order. For years, images have been broadcast to the world of starvation, wanton destruction, forced displacement, survivors being pulled from the rubble, shell shocked children being treated, blood stained swing sets of schools targeted by bunker busters and pulverized underground hospitals.
The world bore witness to it all. Yet the political calculus in Washington never shifted. Ten days ago, President Obama in a meek mea culpa admitted the shortcomings of his Syria policy. He said, “Once Russia and Iran made a decision to back Assad and a brutal air campaign and essentially a pacification of Aleppo regardless of civilian casualties...it was very hard to see a way in which even a trained and committed moderate opposition could hold ground.”
Allow me to offer a layman’s translation of this political doublespeak: “Yes all this destruction in Syria is horrible, but we will allow Moscow and Tehran to dictate the outcome regardless.”
Lastly, the fall of Aleppo will further fan the flames of extremist recruitment. A one-dimensional focus on fighting Daesh and Al-Qaeda will only offer tactical success in the short term. How does one counter the extremists’ narrative that only they can offer a solution against the genocide-like conditions being inflicted upon civilians by Iranian-backed militias?
America’s Arab allies should work with the new administration in Washington for a new way forward in Syria. Though Aleppo may fall, all is still not lost. A strong united message can be sent to Moscow and Tehran that the current horrid status quo in Syria is unacceptable. A renewed commitment by the Arab coalition and western allies to providing Syrian opposition heavier weapons to defend themselves and set the conditions for equitable peace negotiations under UN auspices could also potentially reverse the tide. Just because Assad and Iran currently have the advantage is no reason to fatalistically accept Iranian suzerainty over the whole of Syria.
The outcome in Aleppo today ought to be a rallying point. As US Gen. Petraeus is fond of saying, “What happens in the Middle East doesn’t just stay in the Middle East.” In other words, the security repercussions of inaction are just too vast to countenance and will surely impact major world capitals throughout the globe.
• Oubai Shahbandar is a former Department of Defense senior adviser and currently a strategic communications consultant specializing in Middle Eastern and Gulf Affairs.
