Negotiators struggled in Vienna on Tuesday to give final touches to an agreement that would provide a long-term framework to monitor Iran’s nuclear program, paving the way for the removal of international sanctions on Tehran.
For the United States and its partners the deal may have muffle voices calling for a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Now, it would be presented as a diplomatic achievement by the Obama administration, opening the door for possible normalization of relations between Washington and Tehran.
For Iran’s President Rouhani, the accord would be seen as a triumph for the Iranian people and recognition of its right to develop a civilian nuclear program. More importantly it would lift international sanctions, giving a much-needed relief to Tehran’s ailing economy. Despite opposition from hard-liners, the deal is expected to boost the influence of moderates within Iran’s political and clerical structure.
This deal, which is likely to end Iran’s political and economic isolation, has raised suspicions in the Arab world. The Arab world is suspicious of Tehran’s regional agenda and has openly accused it of meddling in Arab affairs in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Rehabilitating Iran would give it the means it desperately needs to maintain and increase its presence in these countries, it is believed. A stronger Iran, with regional and sectarian agendas, would dramatically boost fears about its threat to Gulf national security; something that has prompted Washington to commit to providing GCC nations with an advanced missile defense system.
Iran is still accused of backing terrorism and its role in both Syria and Iraq has been widely criticized by the West. It is thus important that the arms embargo remain in place until Iran’s regional policies are rectified. But the Arabs are right to view any détente between Washington and Tehran with suspicion, especially as US historic involvement in the Middle East lessens in favor of the so-called pivot to the Far East.
Reaction to the nuclear deal will come in many forms and shapes. For starters some GCC countries have revealed plans to launch their own civilian nuclear programs as a way to test the West’s readiness to sustain such moves. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar will maintain their support of Syrian opposition, which is fighting the regime and its Iranian allies in addition to Daesh militants.
And in the absence of a political solution to Yemen’s crisis, the Saudi Arabia-led Arab coalition cannot but continue with its military operation in support of the legitimate government and to stem Iran’s ties with the Houthi rebels and deposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubair was clear about Riyadh’s stand from Iran’s meddling in Arab affairs when he visited Amman earlier this week. He accused Tehran of standing behind aggressive acts against Arab interests over the last 35 years. But he also said that relations with Iran should be based on mutual respect and non-interference in the affairs of others.
In light of the possible nuclear breakthrough and its repercussions on the region as a whole, it would make sense to initiate some form of Arab-Iran dialogue based on the principles that Al-Jubair outlined. If the global community was able to negotiate a peaceful deal with Iran, why can’t Tehran assuage Arab fears and suspicions through a similar process? Naturally Saudi Arabia and its allies would need to see a sign of good will coming from Iran. That could happen in Yemen, where the ongoing strife appears endless, futile and without a decisive winner. The brunt of this war has been borne by the Yemeni people. A common ground for reconciliation already exists in the form of the Gulf Initiative, the outcome of the national dialogue and UN resolutions. Iran could send a positive signal to its Arab neighbors by backing these points of reference and forcing the Houthi-Saleh camp to return to negotiations.
Such an important gesture could form the basis for a serious dialogue between Iran and the Arabs over other thorny issues while nullifying claims that it has a sinister agenda for the region. Other than that the rift between Iran and its neighbors will only widen, opening the path for all sorts of confrontations.
