Unlike its northern and eastern neighbors, Jordan has managed to overcome regional upsets that began with the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 culminating with the bullet-speed expansion of Daesh militancy over the past two years. Today the terrorist group is in control of large areas in Syria and Iraq, and despite months of relentless air strikes by the international coalition, it continues to pose a grave threat to both war-torn countries, to the stability of the region and to the security of the rest of the world.
Jordan remains one of the most stable countries in the Arab world; ruled by a moderate regime that has managed to address the political and economic needs on the domestic front while protecting the kingdom’s borders against foreign hazards in an increasingly dangerous and unstable neighborhood. Early on King Abdallah was able to manage Jordan’s version of the Arab Spring by launching political reforms and preserving the country’s struggling democracy. But he was probably the first Arab leader to warn against the danger of sectarianism and the rise of post-Al Qaeda fundamentalist groups and their attempt to distort the image of Islam and destabilize the region. He has become a bitter enemy of Daesh and its takfiri ideology.
The rise of Daesh in Iraq and Syria in the past two years sounded alarm bells in Amman. As the group took over most of northeastern Syria and in the wake of the fall of Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul, last July, the king took it upon himself to convince Arabs and world leaders that this bloodthirsty group must be confronted as soon as possible and by all means available. And when the US called for an international coalition to confront the group in Syria and Iraq last year, Jordan was among the first to join. Today it is the only Arab country left in that coalition. The brutal killing of a Jordanian pilot by Daesh militants earlier this year united Jordanians who now fully support Jordan’s open war on the militant group. From that point on, Jordan followed a strategic policy that viewed Daesh as the number one threat to its own national security.
As the Syrian conflict got more complicated, in the absence of a political solution, Jordan began to worry about the fate of Syria’s southern governorates along the kingdom’s border. The king announced that Jordan will do its best to arm and support Syrian tribes, mostly Sunnis, close to its borders against Daesh takeover. The same was declared regarding Al- Anbar Sunni tribes in western Iraq. Most of that key governorate has been taken over by Daesh amid confusion by the Baghdad government and hesitation to arm the Sunni tribes.
As Daesh militants began to advance into southern Syria — taking Palmyra last month — King Abdallah reiterated Jordan’s determination to support Syrian tribes and intervene, if necessary, to check the group’s expansion. The same approach will be made in Al- Anbar in light of the central government’s failure to free key cities in the governorate.
Jordan hosts more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees as a result of the conflict and has repeatedly asked for foreign aid to help it meet its humanitarian obligations.
Jordan is worried that the region is being sucked into an open-ended religious war that will bring down central governments, alter political borders and pave the way for the creation of mini-states, or pockets of influence, along ethnic and sectarian fault lines. This puts pressure on the kingdom to make sure that no hostile entities pop up along its borders with Syria and Iraq.
The continuous emphasis on the exceptional capabilities of Jordan’s armed forces in defending the country and in striking at the heart of an external threat underlines the difficult decisions King Abdallah will face as things deteriorate in the north and east. So far Jordan continues to rely on the military and logistical support of the United States in its fight against the Daesh. But the question is: Faced with such challenges can Jordan defend its security without the full support of its Gulf allies?
