Cost of global inaction on Sudan could be extremely high

In the seven months since the conflict in Sudan broke out between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces militia, the tensions and fighting have continued to escalate and there remains no resolution in sight. The continuation and cumulative impact of the war could have several devastating consequences that may last for generations.

The conflict as it has played out so far has revealed that the likelihood of either warring party completely defeating the other and taking control of all territory in the country is extremely slim. This is the conclusion after the two sides’ respective military capabilities, the nature of the war and logistical issues are taken into consideration.

This leads us to the fact that the failure to end the war will only deepen divisions in Sudan, further tear the country apart, increase hatred and inflict more suffering and pain on ordinary people.

In addition, due to the nature of the conflict, it was evident from the outset that its escalation was not going to be confined to certain areas in Sudan. At the beginning of the war, the fighting was largely concentrated around the capital, Khartoum, and Darfur, but it soon spread to other areas in the country. Recently, the war has spread even further, affecting the Gezira, White Nile and West Kordofan states.

This situation undoubtedly exposes innocent civilians, medical staff and humanitarian workers to greater risk

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

This situation undoubtedly exposes innocent civilians, medical staff and humanitarian workers to greater risk, as indiscriminate attacks will continue to rise. The war between the army and paramilitaries has already left more than 9,000 people dead, while nearly 25 million people are currently in need of humanitarian aid and women and girls have been subjected to sexual violence, such as rape. In addition, about 7.1 million people are displaced, making this the largest domestic displacement crisis in the world.

It should be noted that Sudan was already a fragile state even before the war began in April and, in fact, it had been ever since it became independent in 1956. This means that the odds of Sudan officially becoming a failed state are high. In other words, Sudan might experience what Somalia went through between 1990 and 1992. There, as factional fighting intensified, the rule of law collapsed and Somalia officially became a failed state. It took nearly two decades before a central government was formed again. Rebuilding the country will most likely take decades.

There is also the possibility that the continuation of the war in Sudan will create a situation where the warring parties will settle down in different regions and announce themselves as the official government of Sudan. This would lead to a country with several governments, meaning Sudan would lose its ability to function properly, provide social services, effectively manage the country’s affairs and even receive international recognition.

Another consequence of a long war in Sudan is that ethnic violence might escalate. There is also the possibly of a large-scale genocide — an intent to destroy an ethnic, racial, religious or national group — taking place.

Darfur, a region in western Sudan, is particularly vulnerable when it comes to ethnic cleansing. The Masalit, the largest local ethnic group, is primarily based in the capital of West Darfur, Geneina. It is important to point out that, nearly two decades ago, Darfur witnessed one of the world’s most horrific instances of ethnic cleansing, as hundreds of thousands of people were killed and millions fled for their safety amid fighting between rebel groups and a militia known as the Janjaweed.

Sudan is in a very vulnerable position when it comes to civil wars and being exploited by terror groups

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

There have already been reports and evidence of brutal ethnic violence, such as the discovery of a mass grave outside Geneina that contained the bodies of 87 ethnic Masalit. The EU issued a statement this month, pointing out that there were “credible eyewitness reports (that) more than 1,000 members of the Masalit community were killed in Ardamta, West Darfur, in just over two days.” And the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell added: “These latest atrocities are seemingly part of a wider ethnic cleansing campaign.”

An intensified war in Sudan could also spill over to other countries, some of which are particularly prone to civil wars, are chaos-stricken and are already suffering from economic stagnation and poverty. This could have severe repercussions for the entire Horn of Africa. Sudan shares borders with seven countries: Libya, Egypt, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea. The total disintegration and collapse of the state in Sudan would not only be a significant threat to the Sudanese people, but it would also threaten these neighboring countries, as well as regional and global security and stability.

The continuation of the war in Sudan could also provide a ripe environment for terror groups to emerge, mobilize, recruit new members, grow and gain power. Sudan, in particular, is in a very vulnerable position when it comes to civil wars and being exploited by terror groups due to its socioeconomic status, its lack of a powerful security apparatus, its widespread poverty and its location and geography.

In conclusion, the international community must wake up and prevent Sudan from becoming a failed state, stop ethnic-based and gender-based violence and prevent the country from experiencing yet another large-scale genocide. Action needs to be taken immediately because the alternatives are much more catastrophic.