COVID-19 exacerbating diverging population trends

Initial data suggests that the coronavirus pandemic is reducing birth rates in higher-income countries, while it might be increasing birth rates in some lower-income countries. This phenomenon is unlikely to significantly alter long-term demographic trends, but it might speed up existing trends.

Multiple studies, surveys and media reporting suggest that the pandemic is having a negative impact on birth rates in countries such as France, Italy, the US and China. In France, hospitals in several regions are reporting significant, unusual drops in the number of births. An Italian report found that the number of births in 15 Italian cities dropped by more than 21 percent in December. Another study found that the pandemic led women to plan for fewer children or to delay births in France, Italy, Germany, Spain and the UK.

In the US, a study by the Guttmacher Institute found that 34 percent of American women surveyed “wanted fewer children because of the pandemic.” An estimate from the Brookings Institution suggests that the pandemic will lead to at least 300,000 fewer births in the US in 2021.

China’s birth rate has been falling for years, but the government recently reported that births in 2020 declined by 15 percent compared to the previous year — leading to China’s lowest birth rate since 1949. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its economic effects appear to have exacerbated the existing trend.

There are multiple reasons why the pandemic is driving declines in birth rates in high-income and high-middle income countries. When contraception is easily accessible, women and couples are often accustomed to planning their families — whether to have children, how many, and generally when. In these societies, major crises often lead to declines in birth rates, at least temporarily. Natural disasters and war often lead to declines, sometimes followed by baby booms after life becomes more stable. Economic uncertainty often drives declines in birth rates, as happened in the US in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

The pandemic has combined many of these factors, including the type of increased mortality, unemployment and economic uncertainty that often contribute to decreased birth rates. For example, the Brookings Institute estimate incorporated evidence that “found that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a one percent drop in the birth rate.” The Brookings study also looked at data from the 1918 flu pandemic and found that spikes in deaths led to a decrease in births nine months later.

Another factor that is less quantifiable is the impact of school closures. Many parents are overwhelmed trying to manage work and online schooling or a lack of childcare, and social distancing has undermined many families’ typical support structures. Overwhelmed parents are less likely to choose to have more children, while childless couples observing the struggles of parents might decide against having children at all. Other social impacts might play a role; for example, social distancing and lockdowns might have made it more difficult for single people to find potential mates, or might have delayed weddings.

Country-specific factors also contribute to both longer-term population trends and short-term, pandemic-related developments. For example, China’s one-child policy has fundamentally reshaped social attitudes toward parenthood, even after the one-child restrictions were changed.

While many wealthier countries are seeing declines in birth rates, there is some information to suggest that some poorer countries might see increased birth rates due to the pandemic. Data from the Philippines suggests that the country could see a notable increase in births during the pandemic, intensifying an already high birth rate. Anecdotal evidence from Africa suggests that the pandemic might have a similar effect there. There are multiple potential reasons for an increase in births in less developed countries, including reduced access to contraception during lockdowns and a reallocation of public health funds away from family planning to COVID-19.

There are key unknowns. The information available so far is preliminary and the full impact of the pandemic on fertility rates is not exactly clear. Also, will countries with a pandemic-driven baby bust see a baby boom once vaccines are widespread and the pandemic appears to be over? Much will depend on the pandemic’s duration and long-term economic impacts.

Before the pandemic, UN forecasts for global population growth projected very high growth in Africa, bringing it close to Asia’s population by 2100. India will soon overtake China as the most populous country. Asia’s population is expected to grow well beyond 2050 but enter decline by 2100. Europe’s population is expected to be in decline by 2050, with many European countries already seeing such a trend. Latin America’s population will continue to grow to 2050 but begin to decline soon afterward. Population in North America will continue to grow gradually, with migration a primary driver.

These long-term demographic trends will have enormous consequences. Wealthier countries will likely struggle to provide sufficient funds and services for the care of a large older population, while poorer countries with limited resources and insufficient infrastructure will struggle to meet the needs of young, growing populations. A growing gap between wealthier countries with declining populations and poorer countries with booming populations will drive migration and political and social tensions. The pandemic will have many long-term consequences, and exacerbating these population trends appears to be one.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 16 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms Control Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch