Terrorists ruined the chance to celebrate Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sissi’s first year in power, while the Egyptian media was preoccupied with the assassination of the attorney general and the explosions that followed in Sinai. Will this situation recede with time, or is this the beginning of a massive war?
Considering the nature of Egypt’s civil society, we know that violence does not win. The state will not be blamed if it launches an expanded war against armed opposition and opposition affiliated with it, especially amid popular demands to send those behind terror attacks to the gallows.
Over the course of 50 years, armed groups never won a single battle in Egypt. It is inevitable that Salafist jihadist groups and Muslim Brotherhood’s militant wings will fail in their battle. However, no one has learned from recent history and unfortunately a lot of blood will be shed in Egypt over power struggles.
The nature and magnitude of attacks, from assassinating officials to launching attacks against the military in the Sinai, imply that there are groups and powers allied with the Egyptian armed opposition. These parties think they are capable of toppling El-Sissi’s government by stirring as much chaos as possible to push people to take to the streets to demand change.
This may happen in other countries, but in Egypt there are old institutions, the army being the most prominent. No one but the army can control the street, and no power will be able to seize the Sinai or even part of it. In addition, there are no separatists, regional or sectarian powers such as in Iraq, Syria or Sudan.
Egypt has throughout history remained a united state located along the banks of the River Nile and run from the center, Cairo. The unity of the social fabric and the steadiness of the military make betting on change in Egypt a poor gamble that will only disturb the government, pain ordinary citizens, and harm the economy, investments and people’s livelihoods.
It is not surprising that the government is strict with the opposition, as there is a feeling that what is happening is not mere terrorist activity but crimes committed by mentally disturbed groups supported by some parties to seize power. We do not know if these accusations are just fears or actually facts. However, there is a feeling that this is a battle for survival and the government will not hesitate to pursue extremists beyond its borders.
Meanwhile, the regional situation is volatile and threatens all countries. Libya is the wide gate from where extremists sneak, and from where arms are being transferred to Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria.
