Factions within and the future of the PTI

The description of Pakistani politics, as of the elite by the elite and for the elite may sound cynical, but it is accurate if we closely examine the dominance of dynastic political families. The shallow democracy the country has learnt to live with allows people to elect their ‘representatives’ but the choice to cast votes is practically limited to the members of a national club of ‘electables.’ This professional political class has acquired tremendous social influence, wealth and political power. Interestingly, the members of the same families may have different party affiliations to hedge their interests when power shifts from one party to another. Having access to power is crucial for political patronage these powerful families extend to their constituents.

Since the administrative systems in the districts and almost at every level from local to the national institutions have yet to develop impersonal character-- a quality of modern government that German sociologist Max Weber had suggested-- the citizens in rural areas need political interventions. It is only by staying in power that any political figure can exercise influence with government departments.

The parliamentary political system the Pakistani power elites have chosen as the ‘rules for the political game’ is designed to give them the power to elect the chief ministers of the provinces and prime minister of the country. These powerful positions require incumbent executives to maintain majorities. In mature parliamentary democracies or even in developing democracies where the system is more competitive, majority can be ensured by coherence and unity in the party ranks. In an elite driven electoral democracy like Pakistan’s, the political party system has not developed deeper or stronger roots yet. The uprooting of elected regimes by the military and absence of democracy within the parties are two factors that have kept the growth of party systems stunted. Consequently, the fortunes of the political parties depend on opportunistic swings of electable political groups.

In the entire history of Pakistan, no political party has been able to complete two consecutive tenures in office. That tells us all about political instability due to the frequent making and unmaking of political alliances and coalitions. In my view, there are hundreds of political families that keep shifting their political weight in favor of one or another political coalition. With great experience at hand, they can make a good guess of the political climate, and sensing political storms, they show no signs of embarrassment in moving to a secure political tent.

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s political campaign before coming to political power aimed at mobilizing mass support by raising political awareness against the traditional political establishment of the country— the ‘corrupt’ electables and their role in supporting the two major dynastic political parties. He hoped to garner enough political support at the grassroots level to field honest and new political candidates committed to the manifesto of accountability, justices and clean, effective governance.

In 2013, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won a majority in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, but it ended up third in the Assembly with only 27 members. In the 2018 elections, the PTI changed its political strategy from garnering popular support— a long shot— to taking the much beaten and easier track of courting the resourceful ‘electable’ that has a considerable independent social support base. A good number of founding, ideological activists and leaders of the party were not happy about the inflow of opportunists, and some forewarned Khan about their doubtful loyalty to the mission of PTI.

Just two and half years into power, Khan now faces resistance from the factions to his drive for accountability, which he often says will not spare anyone, including from his own party. Jahangir Tareen is not an ordinary politician; he has been one of Khan’s closest aides, advisers and the chief political architect of cobbling up a majority coalition in the Punjab and at the federal level. The PTI, even with an influx of the influential candidates into its ranks, lacked the majority to form governments. Tareen with his big interests in agriculture and the sugar industry has connections and good standing with traditional political families of Punjab. He used his connections to bring in independents and smaller parties into the coalition to create majorities in the Punjab and National Assembly.

Unpredictable as Pakistani politics is, things have not turned out well for Tareen. The Supreme Court disqualified him in a corruption case and Prime Minister Imran Khan has declared he will not interfere in investigations against Tareen and many others by the National Accountability Bureau for allegedly hoarding sugar, causing a price spiral in the market. The Tareen faction comprising 30 members of assemblies wants investigations to be squashed; else they will pull their support off the government.

Will Khan buckle down under pressure or stand true to his across-the-board accountability slogan? The answer may shape the future of the PTI and political stability in the country.

- Rasul Bakhsh Rais is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore. His latest book is “Islam, Ethnicity and Power Politics: Constructing Pakistan’s National Identity” (Oxford University Press, 2017).

Twitter: @RasulRais