A month after a Saudi-led Arab coalition launched operation “Decisive Storm,” aimed at restoring legitimacy in Yemen, it is possible to say that the airstrikes have succeeded in stemming the tide of the Houthi rebels and forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and halting their advance in most of the south.
But the campaign continues today under a different name, operation “Restoration of Hope” whose objective is to conclude a political settlement to the Yemeni conflict and rebuild the war-torn country. That process received international backing through UN Security Council resolution 2216, under Chapter 7, which the Houthis have rejected.
Saudi determination to check Iranian ambitions in southern Arabia has become a cornerstone of the Arab coalition’s objectives in this campaign. The coalition has succeeded in derailing Iranian efforts to extend Tehran’s control over yet another Arab country. One of the most immediate outcomes of the military operation was to break up supply lines between Tehran and the rebels in Yemen. But most importantly the air campaign has isolated the rebels, along with Saleh’s forces, and created a popular backlash among Yemeni tribes, who now make up the bulk of local resistance. In addition to this, the relentless airstrikes have driven a wedge between Saleh and his Houthi allies.
It was perhaps important that the US dispatched warships to Yemeni coasts last week as a warning to Iran, which was trying to break through the naval blockade. The message was clear from Washington: The nuclear agreement between Tehran and the international community will not deter the US from stepping in to protect its long-term strategic interests with its Gulf allies. This action will provide a good starting point for dialogue between Washington and GCC heads of state in Camp David next month.
But the crisis in Yemen is far from over. According to Yemen’s foreign minister, the Houthi control of territory has been reduced to less than 30 percent. The Arab coalition will continue to work along three definite courses; degrading the rebels’ military structure, supporting the popular resistance in the south and facilitating the ground work for a political settlement. The last point remains a controversial one. The Houthis must relent and withdraw from cities they had occupied and hand in weapons they looted from the armed forces before a political process can begin. But even more important is that those responsible for spilling blood and challenging the legitimate government must also be held responsible for their crimes.
With links to Iran cut off by the air campaign, the Houthis are finding themselves isolated and targeted. Their arrogance has become a sign of weakness and it is a matter of time before internal divisions begin to surface. Moreover, Saleh’s tactics of calling for dialogue and his appeal to the Houthis to stop their aggression have backfired. His own party, the General Popular Congress, is abandoning him and soon he will find himself cornered and unable to dictate conditions. His latest overtures to Saudi Arabia have also failed.
What matters most to the Arab coalition is to send a clear message to Iran; that its regional agenda and attempts to create new realities in the region are being met with force. Its defeat in Yemen will have consequences on its role in both Iraq and Syria. In the latter recent military setbacks by the regime in Idlib and Darra have come at a huge cost to both Damascus and Tehran.
The effect of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah fighters has been undermined in Syria, while the opposition, represented by a coalition of Islamist groups, has recaptured strategic territory from regime forces. Both Iran and Hezbollah are under pressure in Syria at a time when the regime is showing signs of weariness and divisions. Tehran cannot afford to spread its resources along at least three fronts. Perhaps this is why it is trying to solicit the help of Oman in concluding a political deal in Yemen.
The Saudi-led Arab coalition remains steadfast and strong. It has terminated Iran’s expansion in Yemen and has greatly degraded the Houthi military structure. This coalition will represent the core of the proposed Arab joint force, which Arab leaders have agreed to set up recently. Lessons learned from the operation in Yemen will help steer the course for the new joint force. Protecting Arab national security in the face of external dangers will become the main responsibility of Arab countries who are now taking the initiative.
For now the operation in Yemen will continue, backed by the Security Council, until the rebels are forced to accept its terms. The points of reference are clear and the appointment of a new UN envoy to Yemen should prepare the ground for a resumption of dialogue that will restore legitimacy, end the conflict and pave the way to rebuild the country.
