It is official now. The Tehreek-e-Taleban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization of several militant groups, has split into two major factions after the walkout of Mehsud tribe. The report confirms earlier speculation that all has not been well inside the ranks of Pakistani Taleban and the group suffers from major infighting over decisions regarding future strategy.
The TTP has been facing a severe leadership crisis ever since Baitullah Mehsud and Hakimullah Mehsud were killed in drone strikes. After their deaths, Mullah Fazlullah, a non-Mehsud leader, was appointed as the organization’s leader. While the moderate Mehsuds favored pursuing a dialogue with the government of Pakistan, faction led by Fazlullah had sworn not to cease fighting till the implementation of their hard-line version of Islamic laws. The deepening divisions have resulted in fierce tribal clashes, which have claimed the lives of several dozens of TTP fighters.
The Mehsud faction has parted ways with the TTP on the grounds that current leadership was adopting “un-Islamic” ways to achieve the group’s mission. An official statement by the Mehsud group claims that it was strictly against bombing of public places, extortion and kidnappings to source the militancy campaigns. After defection, the group will be forming another separate organization, called the Tehreek-e-Taleban South Waziristan. The latest development puts the peace process in a quagmire again and Pakistan must cautiously welcome the divisions within TTP.
Some analysts are of the view that Pakistan should now seek to engage the more flexible militant factions in a peace process. The recent split may also encourage other smaller militant groups to disintegrate from the TTP, further weakening its position and ability to carry out major terror attacks. While the situation still requires some clarity, the armed forces should display patience with the snail pace of peace talks. The progress of peace talks has been dismal not because the TTP were unwilling to reach a compromise, but rather due to the infighting. The breakaway of Mehsuds from the TTP may be a good sign for Pakistan as it may now be able to advance peace talks and reach a settlement in the Waziristan region.
On the other side, the emergence of rifts within the TTP may have severe repercussions for the peace process as well. As militants continue to fight with each other rather than table demands for negotiations with the government, the chances of attaining peace become grimmer. The TTP is known to be disgruntled with Fazlullah, who is on the run and operates from Afghanistan. In the absence of support from Mehsuds, Fazlullah is expected to rely more on other groups based in northeastern Afghanistan. In collusion with anti-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan, these militants may continue to launch attacks in Pakistani territory. The shift in militant strongholds from Waziristan to other tribal areas along the Afghan border could also mean that situation in neighboring Afghanistan is expected to become more volatile. With the US withdrawal from region months away, any surge in Afghan violence would not augur well for Pakistan’s ties with the country. As a result, Pakistan will be forced to reconsider its foreign policy in the region and push harder to normalize relations with the bordering countries.
