German political flux grows ahead of Merkel’s departure

With Angela Merkel in her final months in power, the German postwar political landscape is in wider, historic ferment, with the Greens sensationally topping national polls this week.

In the weekly Kantar survey, the Greens polled 28 percent, up 6 percentage points. This means, for the first time in the nation’s history, the party is more popular than Merkel’s right-of-center Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc and the left-of-center Social Democratic Party (SPD).

The reason this is so significant for Germany is that the SPD and CDU/CSU have stood as the twin pillars of German politics since the end of the Second World War in a longstanding duopoly of power. But with the CDU/CSU’s bearings uncertain in the post-Merkel era, and the SPD not polling strongly either, Germany may be fast moving from a de facto two-party to a multiparty system, with smaller parties that once functioned as subsidiaries of either the SPD or the CDU/CSU sometimes eclipsing them.

This week’s Kantar poll put the CDU-CSU on 27 percent, the SPD on 13 percent, the socialist left party (Die Linke) at 7 percent, the far-right, populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) on 10 percent, and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) at 9 percent. Part of the reason the two main parties are languishing is their choice of candidates for chancellor: The CDU/CSU has chosen Armin Laschet (the current CDU chairman), rejecting Bavarian Premier Markus Soeder, who is more popular with voters, while the SPD has put forward Olaf Scholz, who is currently serving as vice chancellor.

While the Greens may yet fall away in popularity and not become the largest single group in the Bundestag following September’s elections, the major parties are rattled. Annalena Baerbock, who has been chosen by the Greens as their candidate for chancellor, has been roundly criticized in recent days for her inexperience. Scholz, for instance, said: “Germany is one of the world’s biggest and most successful industrial countries. It should be run by someone who has experience in governing, who not only wants to govern, but can actually do it.”

Germany’s political flux is not just a domestic issue, but one that also matters deeply for Europe, and indeed the world at large. Germany is the continent’s most populous country and largest economy, with its influence within the EU significantly increased as a result of Brexit.

One of the drivers of Germany’s political ferment is that the nation’s postwar consensus is falling away in multiple areas.

Andrew Hammond

One of the drivers of Germany’s political ferment is that the nation’s postwar consensus is falling away in multiple areas. This includes history (such as attitudes toward the Second World War), geopolitics (including views toward Russia), the economy (such as attitudes toward the auto industry) and ethics (including views toward refugees). This is reflected in the fracturing of the political landscape.

Historically, many Germans have been generally content with their postwar lot, seeing themselves as beneficiaries of globalization, with unemployment at the last federal election the lowest since the reunification of East and West Germany. However, this may be changing, as shown by the rise of smaller parties with, for instance, the Greens winning votes on the basis that now is increasingly seen by many as the right time for a political departure in the country, to protect the climate and reduce inequality.

While the Greens’ poll lead brings the decline of the two-party system into sharp focus, the movement toward a multiparty system has longer origins. The last federal election, in 2017, saw some 42 parties competing for 598 Bundestag seats, with six securing more than 5 percent of the vote and therefore winning seats in the legislature. In addition to the CDU-CSU and SPD, this included the Greens and the FDP. However, the story of the election was the rise of the AfD, which surged to third place, becoming the first far-right group to win Bundestag seats for some six decades.

The flux in Germany also reflects the vacuum at the apex of power in Berlin while Merkel, the most important political leader in Europe, gradually transitions from the political scene, having been head of the CDU since 2000 and chancellor for more than a decade and a half.

Looking forward, the nation’s multiparty future may now mean that politics is generally less predictable, with even greater challenges to establishing a governing administration each election cycle. There may be more rotating coalitions and the problems these can bring, including potential paralysis and the prospect of the chancellorship becoming weaker.

However, there may be positives too. Firstly, the emerging multiparty system may impede the progress of the AfD by nullifying its anti-establishment appeal. That group may take its place among many parties and its support may then be pegged in the 10 to 20 percent range.

Another potential benefit of such a multiparty system is that it might lead to more political engagement. This is because, with more parties, there are signs that voter participation may rise again.

This highlights the historical crossroads the nation is now at. While a multiparty system could have some positives, the political danger is a potentially weaker Germany and Europe at a time of growing global geopolitical flux and economic uncertainty.