It has been more than two months since a Saudi Arabia- led Arab coalition intervened in Yemen in order to restore the legitimate government, force the Houthi militias and soldiers loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh to withdraw from key Yemeni cities and provinces and put an end to Iran’s meddling in that country’s affairs.
The air campaign has achieved some objectives but not all. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies were able to pass UN Security resolution number 2216, under Chapter 7, which gave the rebels few days to withdraw from the capital Sanaa and other cities, accept the outcome of the national dialogue that was achieved last year and join a political process to agree on the future of the country.
But the Houthi-Saleh alliance rejected the resolution and stepped up its attacks against Aden and other southern cities and provinces effectively dragging Yemen into a protracted civil war. It also boycotted a reconciliation meeting that took place in Riyadh last month. Meanwhile, the air campaign continued after a five-day humanitarian truce, which the rebels did not observe, and while the renegade militias continued to press with their assault, local resistance groups began to retaliate and were able to liberate some areas.
A new UN envoy to Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmad, has tried to hold a meeting of all Yemenis in Geneva. But President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has made it clear that the rebels must first accept and implement resolution 2216 before such a meeting could take place. Politically as well as militarily the conflict in Yemen is reaching a deadlock. Among the immediate objectives that Arab coalition was able to achieve was to cut off Iran’s supply lines to the Houthi rebels. The air strikes have hurt the rebels and loosened their grip over some areas, but they have not repulsed them or forced them to yield.
In the absence of a political formula to bring all parties to the negotiation table the Yemeni conflict will drag on for many months to come. The people of Yemen are paying a heavy price for the blind ambitions of both the Houthis and Saleh. The humanitarian cost has been enormous and UN organizations are warning of a catastrophe. The rebels have committed major war crimes in Aden, Taaz and Al Dale’. They have kidnapped journalists, human rights activists and opposition figures and used them as human shields.
As Ahmad tries to mediate between all parties involved, including Iran, in a bid to convene the Geneva conference, there are news that Oman has stepped in with its own initiative; holding a meeting between American, Houthi and Iranian officials at the request of the US. While Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government will not support such meetings, it is hoped that the Houthis will seek a political way out. If they accept to implement the UN resolution then the door will be open to hold a bigger conference in Geneva as soon as possible. If not then the Arab coalition has no option but to continue with its air campaign. It cannot afford to be seen as giving up on Yemen and its legitimate government. There are reports that a Houthi delegation has also traveled to Moscow to seek political support from the Kremlin.
After all is said and done the Houthis, who are still being viewed as part of the political landscape in Yemen, must decide that their gambit to take over the country will not work. Simply said Saudi Arabia is committed to restore the legitimate Yemeni government. They need to accept the UN resolution and end their partnership with the former president and his gang. In return they will receive certain assurances and will be encouraged to join an inclusive political process based primarily on the outcome of the national dialogue and the GCC initiative on Yemen.
They must also sever relations with Iran, whose interference in Arab affairs has become a major challenge for the Sunni world as sectarian wars rage in Iraq and Syria and threaten the stability of Lebanon. The fact that they are viewed as agents of Iran in Yemen has undermined their credibility.
One person who should not be exempted or given assurances should be the former president, whose role in encouraging the Houthis to take over the capital and derail the political process has caused death and destruction to the country. He must be brought to justice for the crimes that he has committed.
The coming few days will be crucial for the future of Yemen. Saudi Arabia and its allies continue to support a political solution to the Yemeni conflict. The Houthis will have to make their position clear away from the ploys of Saleh and his renegade generals. They can still be part of a political process that aims at ending the war and achieve reconciliation.
