The election of the chairman and deputy chairman of the Senate in the upper house of the Pakistan Parliament generated much political activity. It produced an unprecedented cooperation between two major opposition parties, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) and their allies, solely to defeat the candidates of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN).
To the great disappointment of the ruling PMLN, it lost both positions to the opposition candidates, establishing that some of its members and allies defected to the opposition while casting their votes under the secret ballot system.
The post-election period witnessed the drifting away of the PPP and the PTI from each other and returning to the politics of acrimony and name-calling. Their leadership made it clear that they would pursue their agendas individually and that they do not intend to cultivate a permanent cooperative relationship. However, as the short-lived cooperation helped them to defeat the common adversary, the PMLN, some of their activists will quietly explore the prospect of their cooperation for the general elections due later this year.
The most significant outcome of the election of the Senate’s top offices was that for the first time in Pakistan a Baloch senator from Balochistan was elected chairman of the Senate. In the past, the senators from Balochistan hav been elected deputy chairman, but never chairman.
The top leadership of the PMLN, especially Nawaz Sharif, his daughter, Maryam Sharif, and their drum-beaters, suggested quite clearly that they lost the Senate elections because of a conspiracy against them which involved the opposition political parties and the Army establishment. They argued that the PPP and the PTI supported the candidate from Balochistan on the direction of the Army establishment and the defections in the ruling coalitions were also caused by them. The PMLN has not provided any concrete evidence in support of their allegations but it makes these claims time and again, describing these as a “reality” that needs no proof.
Confrontational politics mean the next election campaign will be stormy and violent.
Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi
After the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif by the Supreme Court, the PMLN elected his younger brother and Chief Minister Punjab, Shahbaz Sharif, as the party president in the first week of March. However, the real command of the party is still with Nawaz Sharif, who manages the party from the sidelines. This makes it difficult for Shahbaz to assume an autonomous role. He will also find it difficult to dissociate himself from the confrontational strategy of Nawaz Sharif.
The PMLN has reasonably strong roots in central and north Punjab and it can continue as the leading party in the province of Punjab. However, it faces one major dilemma. Nawaz Sharif’s confrontation with the Supreme Court and the Army will adversely affect the political prospects of the party in the long run. It is likely to experience defections of some its parliamentarians who do not want to pursue confrontation with the two powerful state institutions.
If Nawaz Sharif moderates his hard-line approach toward the Supreme Court and the military, or the PMLN detaches itself from his strident approach, the PMLN has much scope in politics. However, there are hardly any signs of the PMLN distancing itself from Nawaz Sharif’s strident approach. The PMLN’s current political predicament will persist.
The dynamics of Pakistani politics, as well as the relations between the political forces and the military, have acquired salience because the current tenure of the PMLN government is coming to an end in the first week of June, if the government is not dissolved earlier. This will set the stage for the new general elections in Pakistan later in the year.
If the PMLN continues with its anti-judiciary and anti-military disposition it is likely to heighten tension in the political process. While pursuing confrontation with two state institutions, it also has a troubled relationship with its two main political rivals, the PPP and the PTI.
The current political discourse of three major political parties (PMLN, PPP and PTI), often reflects intolerance, mudslinging and trading of charges and counter-charges. This type of confrontational politics, coupled with an “undeclared political war” against two state institutions by the PMLN, make it extremely difficult to endure democracy and its democratic culture. The PMLN’s policy of confrontation with the two state institutions is not supported by the PPP and the PTI.
These major political parties want to outmaneuver one another at any cost, which implies that they are willing to go to any length for that purpose. This also means that the campaign for the next general elections is going to be stormy and violent. It is also not clear if the quality of politics will improve after the elections.
— Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi is a Pakistan-based political analyst. Twitter: @har132har
