In one swoop the regional balance of power has been changed, perhaps forever thanks to President Barack Obama who’s been pushing for a deal with Iran for six years, mostly behind the scenes. If this arrangement is ratified, which it probably will be, the Islamic Republic of Iran emerges emboldened, vastly enriched and empowered to continue its destructive and destabilizing policies throughout the Middle East and the Gulf.
Obama says himself there are no guarantees that the $130 billion windfall, which Tehran is shortly set to receive will be spent on improving the country — and reading between the lines of the Supreme Leader’s speech marking the end of Ramadan, it won’t be.
“Whether the deal is approved or disapproved, we will never stop supporting our friends in the region and the people of Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon,” he said amid chants of “death to America,” “death to the UK” and “death to Israel.” Translated that means more money and/or weapons for Hamas, Shiite Houthi militias, the Assad Regime, Hezbollah and continued backing for anti-government rabble-rousers in Bahrain to which Iran has made a territorial claim.
“Even after this deal, our policy toward the arrogant US will not change,” he stressed. In other words, Obama has heaped rewards on his country’s self-declared enemy and one that has regional hegemonic ambitions. Besides the release of Iran’s frozen funds it will be able to flood the market with Iranian oil (driving down prices even further) and will benefit from trade and foreign investment.
It’s no wonder the Iranian people are engaging in one bit celebratory street party, while taking to Twitter with quasi jokes such as “I was saving up for a KIA but now I’ve got my eye on a Porsche.” The long-suffering Iranian people deserve a break, but I’m afraid that this is one that will have negative consequences for their neighbors. This has been such a great deal for Iran that once it was sealed Iranian negotiators, including Foreign Minister Mohammed Javed Al-Zarif, literally wept with joy.
Obama’s fervor to get Iran to sign-up was such that he offered Iran a $50 billion bribe, according to the Jerusalem Post. His pitch throughout has been it’s either this deal or war. The deal’s opponents aren’t buying it. There was a middle way; a comprehensive deal conditional upon Iran’s behavior. Obama says that was not achievable; strange when in 2003 Iran reached out to George W. Bush with a faxed proposal for dialogue that included nuclear cooperation and an end to Tehran’s backing of militant groups.
Bush was in no mood to shake hands at a time when America was out to project its power in the Middle East and Iran was viewed as a minor player. Ironically, Bush’s invasion of Iraq awarding Shiites control turned out to be a game changer.
Moreover what exactly does the West and the region get in return for all this largesse heaped on the ayatollahs? Very little in my view, especially if the Ayatollah Khamenei can be believed! He issued a fatwa against the development of nuclear weapons. Successive Iranian presidents have insisted their nuclear program is peaceful. So, if that’s the case, Iran’s been rewarded for nothing. Even if Iran has been harboring such ambitions, this deal merely postpones them for 15 years when the country will emerge as a nuclear weapons threshold state.
But it’s not over until the fat lady sings; in this case, Congressional lawmakers. Congress has 60 days in which to mull the 159-page document before a vote in the House and the Senate. If the ‘no’s’ have it, Obama has threatened to wield his veto. However, if the critics can scrape up a two-thirds majority, they can override the presidential veto. That’s possible but doesn’t look likely, primarily because the White House would be left with egg on its face, embarrassed in front of its P5+1 partners, some of which were practically strong-armed by Obama to play ball.
In the meantime, the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC is spending $20 million on a campaign to persuade Congress to do just that. Benjamin Netanyahu is adamant that Israel will not accept this bad deal and maintains its right of self-defense in spite of a White House bribe in the form of massive military assistance to Israel in return for his non-interference.
GCC member states have been fairly muted on the deal until now, but an op-ed penned by the Kingdom’s former ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, may reflect the general thinking in the area’s corridors of power. He accuses Obama of knowingly making a bad deal and concludes that “People in my region now are relying on God’s will, and consolidating their local capabilities and analysis with everybody else except our oldest and most powerful ally.”
