When you speak to Iranians who live in Iran, the first impression most of them convey is one of tiredness. When I ask friends what exactly they are tired of, they reply: “Everything.” From unemployment, to the oppression of young people, minorities and those who speak out, to soaring inflation and the collapsing economy — all are sources of public exhaustion.

Sometimes this tiredness explodes into public protest, which can quickly sweep the nation unless the regime intervenes. Examples include the disputed presidential election in 2009, and the more recent demonstrations against economic hardship that began in the city of Mashhad in late December 2017 and affected the whole country by early January. 

Many observers believe the real aim of the protests this year was nothing less than regime change, but not in the same way as the so-called Arab Spring in 2011. Iranians learnt a lot from their own revolution in 1979. They understand the importance of not damaging vital infrastructure, of minimizing clashes with the security forces, and of avoiding interference by foreign powers. 

Nothing has changed drastically in Iran’s economy since President Donald Trump announced US withdrawal from the nuclear deal on May 8, although many international companies are now questioning whether they can continue to do business with Iran. The real pain may be six months away. 

So why is there so much unrest bubbling away under the surface — even while the nuclear deal was in place? At least one demonstrator was killed in violent protests in the city of Kazeroun. In addition, a recent strike by truck drivers quickly spread to taxi drivers, all of them complaining about low wedges and general economic hardship. In February, five security officers were killed and about 300 people were arrested during protests by Gonabadi Sufis over the detention of one of their senior members. Many followers are still being held in prison without charge. 

Iranians are angry at the absence of reform, at the refusal of the regime to allow them to elect the people they want to govern them, and to make the changes that are required in a peaceful way.

Camelia Entekhabifard

There is so much frustration directed against the system and the regime in Iran, regardless of whether the nuclear deal is in place. Iranians are angry at the absence of reform, at the refusal of the regime to allow them to elect the people they want to govern them, and to make the changes that are required in a peaceful way. The collapsing economy is the fuel that feeds this anger and frustration, and leads to protests. 

Mehdi Karroubi, the opposition leader who has been under house arrest since February 2011 following protests over the disputed presidential election in 2009, and is now 80 years old, wrote an open letter this year in which he said that, instead of blaming others, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should take responsibility for Iran’s economic and political failures.

“During the last three decades, you have eliminated the main revolutionary forces to implement your own policies, and now you should face the results of that,” Karroubi wrote. 

He pointed out that more than 10 million Iranians now live in absolute poverty. 

“Under such conditions, it is natural that the lower classes, who were the grassroot supporters of the Islamic Revolution, will turn into a gunpowder barrel.”

This letter illustrates the wider picture, and is an accurate reflection of the condition of all Iranians.

  • Camelia Entekhabifard is an Iranian-American journalist, political commentator and author of Camelia: Save Yourself By Telling the Truth (Seven Stories Press, 2008). Twitter: @CameliaFard