The political system of Iraq is on the verge of collapse and the events of the past few days have raised serious questions about the viability of the state amid the popular backlash that has crippled the government and divided lawmakers. Leading the rebellion is Muqtada Al-Sadr, an unpredictable Shiite cleric who has played a controversial role in Iraqi politics since the Anglo-American invasion of his country in 2003.
Al-Sadr, whose hostility to the Americans has led to bloody confrontations in the past, relies mainly on the strong support of poor Shiites in Baghdad and elsewhere.
The Saddam regime had victimized Al-Sadr’s family. In recent years he has distanced himself from the pro-Iran Al-Dawa party, led by Nuri Al-Maliki and which is the main player in the largest coalition in Parliament.
For weeks now Al-Sadr has been leading a popular movement to accelerate political reforms, promised by Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi, who is also a leading member of Al-Dawa party. Al-Sadr’s main demand is to end the political quota system, which has divided the country, alienated the Sunnis and allowed massive corruption to spread.
Al-Abadi now finds himself cornered between Al-Maliki, who continues to call the shots behind the scenes and would prefer to maintain the status quo, and the popular force of Al-Sadr, who has withdrawn his ministers from the Cabinet and triggered a rebellion inside the legislature.
One thing that Al-Sadr has succeeded in doing, whether intentionally or not, is to unravel the Shiite coalition and change the principles of the political game in Baghdad’s Green Zone. On Saturday his supporters, joined by others who support his demands, broke into the Green Zone and stormed the Parliament chanting anti-Iran slogans. They later withdrew but not after Al-Sadr issued an ultimatum to the three branches of the government to elect a new Cabinet of technocrats as soon as possible or face dismissal and civil mutiny. One thing is for sure; his unpredictability and the growing support for his cause have put Iraq’s traditional players on the defensive.
Parliament Speaker Sleim Al-Jbouri who faces an internal dissent by deputies, has warned that the state will have to undergo total restructuring or face collapse. He is running out of time. Al-Abadi, on the other hand, continues to enjoy the support of Al-Sadr but he is careful not to sacrifice what remains of his political capital for fear of losing his battle with Al-Maliki for Al-Dawa’s leadership.
The current crisis has dampened military efforts to recapture areas under the control of Daesh. The Americans have reiterated their support to Al-Abadi but they know that their influence over the political process in Iraq is waning. So far Al-Sadr’s movement has sidelined the role of Tehran and Washington in the Green Zone — but that will not last for long. Perhaps this is why Al-Sadr flew to Tehran on Monday to consult with Iran’s leaders on how to end the stalemate. Rebuffed by the Iranians and their Iraqi allies in the past, he now wants to prove his political credentials.
And if the Shiite alliance has been rattled by Al-Sadr’s daring moves, the Sunni coalition is not doing better either. Recent events have divided Sunni deputies with some siding with Al-Maliki and others with the Sadrist movement. The only cohesive group, so far, is the Kurds who have gained the most from the delicate balance of power in the current political structure.
Al-Sadr is an opportunist and he is riding a popular wave of resentment by the majority of Iraqis who are fed up with a system that has usurped the country’s wealth, created a corrupt political class and failed to improve the lot of citizens. His call to do away with political quotas is being welcomed by both Shiites and Sunnis. But to move beyond the current stalemate requires leadership, something that is lacking in today’s Iraq.
In addition to that, any attempt at launching a national dialogue among political, ethnic and sectarian components stipulates that Tehran and Washington step aside and allow the Iraqi people to determine the best path forward.
Such a scenario is unlikely to happen. Sectarian politics will continue to pit Iraqis against each other. This benefits Iran, which wants to keep Iraq under its control.
The current crisis has stunned key players in Iraqi politics who are yet to declare their position on the reform path. These include Al-Abadi, Al-Jbouri, Ammar Al-Hakim, Osama Al-Nujeifi, Saleh Al-Mutlaq and Ayad Alawi, among others. Unless they abandon policy of entrenchment and behind-the-scene bargaining and come out to address the core of Iraq’s existential challenges, the crisis will deepen.
Time is running out and it might be too late to stop Iraq from disintegrating. Already Daesh is using the current political paralysis to spread death and destruction. Al-Sadr may carry out his threats and topple the country’s leadership but that could also spell the end of the country, as we know it.
Al-Sadr, whose hostility to the Americans has led to bloody confrontations in the past, relies mainly on the strong support of poor Shiites in Baghdad and elsewhere.
The Saddam regime had victimized Al-Sadr’s family. In recent years he has distanced himself from the pro-Iran Al-Dawa party, led by Nuri Al-Maliki and which is the main player in the largest coalition in Parliament.
For weeks now Al-Sadr has been leading a popular movement to accelerate political reforms, promised by Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi, who is also a leading member of Al-Dawa party. Al-Sadr’s main demand is to end the political quota system, which has divided the country, alienated the Sunnis and allowed massive corruption to spread.
Al-Abadi now finds himself cornered between Al-Maliki, who continues to call the shots behind the scenes and would prefer to maintain the status quo, and the popular force of Al-Sadr, who has withdrawn his ministers from the Cabinet and triggered a rebellion inside the legislature.
One thing that Al-Sadr has succeeded in doing, whether intentionally or not, is to unravel the Shiite coalition and change the principles of the political game in Baghdad’s Green Zone. On Saturday his supporters, joined by others who support his demands, broke into the Green Zone and stormed the Parliament chanting anti-Iran slogans. They later withdrew but not after Al-Sadr issued an ultimatum to the three branches of the government to elect a new Cabinet of technocrats as soon as possible or face dismissal and civil mutiny. One thing is for sure; his unpredictability and the growing support for his cause have put Iraq’s traditional players on the defensive.
Parliament Speaker Sleim Al-Jbouri who faces an internal dissent by deputies, has warned that the state will have to undergo total restructuring or face collapse. He is running out of time. Al-Abadi, on the other hand, continues to enjoy the support of Al-Sadr but he is careful not to sacrifice what remains of his political capital for fear of losing his battle with Al-Maliki for Al-Dawa’s leadership.
The current crisis has dampened military efforts to recapture areas under the control of Daesh. The Americans have reiterated their support to Al-Abadi but they know that their influence over the political process in Iraq is waning. So far Al-Sadr’s movement has sidelined the role of Tehran and Washington in the Green Zone — but that will not last for long. Perhaps this is why Al-Sadr flew to Tehran on Monday to consult with Iran’s leaders on how to end the stalemate. Rebuffed by the Iranians and their Iraqi allies in the past, he now wants to prove his political credentials.
And if the Shiite alliance has been rattled by Al-Sadr’s daring moves, the Sunni coalition is not doing better either. Recent events have divided Sunni deputies with some siding with Al-Maliki and others with the Sadrist movement. The only cohesive group, so far, is the Kurds who have gained the most from the delicate balance of power in the current political structure.
Al-Sadr is an opportunist and he is riding a popular wave of resentment by the majority of Iraqis who are fed up with a system that has usurped the country’s wealth, created a corrupt political class and failed to improve the lot of citizens. His call to do away with political quotas is being welcomed by both Shiites and Sunnis. But to move beyond the current stalemate requires leadership, something that is lacking in today’s Iraq.
In addition to that, any attempt at launching a national dialogue among political, ethnic and sectarian components stipulates that Tehran and Washington step aside and allow the Iraqi people to determine the best path forward.
Such a scenario is unlikely to happen. Sectarian politics will continue to pit Iraqis against each other. This benefits Iran, which wants to keep Iraq under its control.
The current crisis has stunned key players in Iraqi politics who are yet to declare their position on the reform path. These include Al-Abadi, Al-Jbouri, Ammar Al-Hakim, Osama Al-Nujeifi, Saleh Al-Mutlaq and Ayad Alawi, among others. Unless they abandon policy of entrenchment and behind-the-scene bargaining and come out to address the core of Iraq’s existential challenges, the crisis will deepen.
Time is running out and it might be too late to stop Iraq from disintegrating. Already Daesh is using the current political paralysis to spread death and destruction. Al-Sadr may carry out his threats and topple the country’s leadership but that could also spell the end of the country, as we know it.
