When you think of Mogadishu you are hauntingly reminded of the almost impossible task of ridding urban enclaves of guerrilla infestation. Black Hawk Down may have been a film but it captures the ‘unequal’ balance between soldiers and militants. The second have a marked advantage and we have seen this through modern history. From Cambodia to Vietnam and the Indians in Sri Lanka or even what we are seeing in the Yemen battle, the options for the regular forces are severely reduced because they have to keep in mind two major factors. One, keeping down the collateral damage to civilians, especially the old, women and children; and two, identifying under trying conditions, who is the threat and who is an innocent in the path of the bullet.
The fragile peace in the Somalian capital has been rudely blown apart after Shabab militants exploded a car bomb outside the law courts and gunmen stormed the compound with a toll of 19 but certainly more terrifying in its implications.
A second bomb was set off near an African Union and Turkish Red Crescent convoy on their way to the airport underscoring the end of a year of relative quiet. The possibility that the killed were UN officials makes it a global issue. The fear is not just if these acts of violence raise the specter of unrest again but that the extremists have only read the opening chapter of another assault on the country and have on the anvil more such attacks in future.
It becomes necessary to negate any such plan now and not wait for evidence that this is the beginning of a series.
Over the past 10 months the Shabab were expelled or at least pushed out of the cities and left to establish strongholds in the countryside. Clearly, the world per se has taken its eye of the ball and so too has the government, thereby allowing the group to induct in more disaffected youth into its cadres and re-arm itself before making this push. The year of peacefulness now seems to have been a breather for Shabab and their back is far from being bent. In fact, the authorities have given them an opportunity to regroup and this augurs ill for the immediate future.
No way can these double blasts be seen as good news and while it demands investigation whether the car bomb was placed to target Turkish President Erdogan’s entourage since it was exploded near the hotel where the delegation is staying no such link has been alluded to by the Shabab and it could be a coincidence. Turkey is seen as a major ally of Somalia and continues to offer it support and aid.
One may recall the Nairobi mall attack in 2013 which left 67 dead and was masterminded by the Al-Shabab.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has said the attacks are a threat to Somalia and its future. But saying it is not enough of a defense. The forces must get on the offensive and begin to scope the countryside for strongholds or else they might have to face the possibility of the militants finding their way back into the urban jungle.
