Indian voters showered their love on Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) leader Modi as he humbled opposition parties by winning a clear majority in the Indian Parliament.
By capturing over 330 out of 545 seats with BJP’s allies, Modi is certain to take oath as the next Indian prime minister. The Indian elections were also closely watched in Pakistan because of its implications on the country’s security and foreign policy. Often harshly criticized for his religious fascist and anti-Muslim views, Modi was presented in the campaign as a changed man.
While he may be despised in Pakistan for his role in the 2002 Gujarat communal riots, where he was seated as the chief minister, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif became one of the first few leaders to congratulate him on assuming power. The phone call by Sharif symbolizes Pakistan’s desire to revive peace talks with India in the best interest of South Asian region.
Sharif has historically enjoyed a close working relationship with the BJP during his previous tenure from 1997 to 1999. Although few expected India and Pakistan to develop mutual understanding back then, the hostile neighbors signed Lahore Declaration to bolster bilateral ties. During his campaign, Modi has stressed on the need for both India and Pakistan to come closer and tackle the menace of poverty that plagues millions in the populous region.
Modi’s willingness to strengthen bilateral ties with Pakistan could help sell his softer image, which has already been bought by a majority of Indians who are seeking economic revival akin to Gujarat’s “economic miracle.” With Sharif also having a business background, Pakistan may seek to improve economic ties with India and gain market access to over a billion people. Both sides are already very close to clinching a trade normalization deal and announcing Non-Discriminatory Market Access on Reciprocal Basis (NDMARB) status for each other.
Under Modi’s strong leadership and a clear majority government, Pakistan is hopeful of renewing peace efforts with India. The peace dialogue earlier failed in the fall-out of 2008 Mumbai terror attacks and subsequent tensions along the border between two countries.
In this background, senior diplomats from Pakistan believed that the Manmohan Singh-led government was too weak and reluctant to enter into a constructive and sustained peace process with Pakistan with election dates appearing closer.
Therefore, Pakistan was hoping for a strong Modi-led government to normalize strained relations and negotiate on all outstanding issues, including the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan is keen on improving its ties with India as it battles domestic insurgency and prepares for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Another open front on the eastern border would further constrain budgetary resources and distract its attention from other major internal challenges of weak economy, energy crisis and a bubbling political turmoil.
If election rhetoric is an indicator of future government policies, Pakistan should recognize that Modi is not ready to compromise on the Kashmir issue. In his fiery election speeches, he harshly criticized the Congress government for not doing enough to push the Indian stance on Kashmir. He has pledged to uphold India’s territorial integrity and abolish a constitutional clause regarding autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir.
However, election promises are often dismissed as politics of appeasement and Modi will be forced to consider norms of international diplomacy in foreign policy decisions. In case Modi adopts a rigid stance on Kashmir, history may well repeat itself and the dispute may prevent both India and Pakistan from making significant progress in their bilateral ties.
