In response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal last week for a regional coalition to combat terrorism, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moallem said: “I know Russia is a country that works miracles, but for us to ally with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and the United States… is something that requires a huge miracle.”
Putin is correct that only such a coalition can deter Daesh, but including the Syrian regime as it is today will thwart the plan. Russia should push toward a Syrian regime without President Bashar Assad and according to the Geneva I communiqué, then establish an alliance that includes this new regime, Gulf countries, Turkey and Jordan in order to fight Daesh. Such an alliance could provide stability in Syria, as well as regional and global safety.
Putin specified potential alliance members as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Jordan. The problem does not lie in the idea, but in the list of countries. The issue is not a misunderstanding. We know each other well, and we tolerated the Syrian regime even when it killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and another 20 Lebanese leaders in the last decade. However, when it killed more than 250,000 Syrians and displaced nine million in the past four years, the relation shattered and is irreparable. Reconciliation would increase regional unrest and would not deter Daesh.
The regional map is changing, and Washington is submitting to the new reality imposed by Iran via its nuclear program and expanding influence in Iraq and Syria. This expansion threatens the existence of Gulf countries, Turkey and Jordan.
The Iranians currently manage the regimes of two big countries, Iraq and Syria, and an alliance between Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Assad would be tantamount to recognizing Tehran’s domination over Syria. It is dangerous for the Gulf countries and Turkey to ignore Iranian expansion.
A coalition of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Jordan is good in the sense of allying moderate Sunnis against extremist forces, but including Assad ruins the formula.
American officials do not understand the region’s complicated history. Putin is asking Sunnis to fight Sunnis, but the Americans are pleading for Iranian help — in other words, extremist Shiites fighting extremist Sunnis. This is a terrible mistake because it will empower Daesh, as Sunnis worldwide, who form Islam’s sweeping majority, will rise to support people of their sect.
The concept of Al-Qaeda and Daesh is based on sectarian and historical struggle led by extremists. It resembles the wars between Protestants and Catholics in central Europe in the 17th century, which inflicted destruction, famine, disease and bankruptcy.
In the last decade, Saudi Arabia succeeded in deterring Al-Qaeda after a bloody war, and the Americans only succeeded in defeating Al-Qaeda in Iraq after seeking the help of Sunni tribes. The duration of the fight against Daesh and religious extremism depends on who is involved — whether it is the Assad regime and Iran, or Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
