This week’s surprise capture of Ramadi, the capital of Anbar governorate, by Islamic State (IS) militants represents another blow to Prime Minister Haider Al- Abadi’s efforts to win the trust and confidence of Iraq’s Sunnis.
In a repeat of the dramatic fall of Mosul last June, the Iraqi Army deserted its positions in Ramadi and delivered the city to the militants, abandoning hundreds of poorly armed tribal fighters who were quickly overrun. The governor of Al-Anbar, who had sent distress calls to the Baghdad government over the last few days, said the withdrawal of the army was puzzling. Reports spoke of hundreds of security forces and tribal fighters losing their lives as a result of the ruthless bombing by the insurgents.
Al-Anbar, Iraq’s largest governorate, has been a strategic target for IS militants since last year. The militants have taken many towns in a series of bold attacks, including Fallujah, and some reports say they are now in control of more than 70 percent of the province. Ramadi is about 100 kilometers west of Baghdad and the latest offensive suggests that the militants are now closer than they have ever been to threatening the capital.
Their next target is Habanieh military base, the oldest in Iraq, where vicious battles are expected to take place. The base constitutes a defensive line for the capital.
What is shocking is that the fall of Ramadi took place despite relentless coalition bombing of IS positions and claims by Abadi that he had sent reinforcements to the beleaguered province. But tribal chiefs and Sunni deputies in Parliament have accused the government of stalling and ignoring pleas to send more troops. They had objected to proposals to dispatch the controversial Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which are made mostly of Shiite volunteers. The PMF have been accused of carrying out atrocities against Sunni residents in Salahuddin governorate and elsewhere. The paramilitary militias were formed by the prime minister, ostensibly to assist the Iraqi Army, after the fall of Mosul.
Calls to allow the Sunnis to join a proposed National Guard to defend their own areas were ignored by the government. Abadi is under pressure from Iran, which is said to be running the PMF, not to arm the Sunni tribes. Other reports say that former Prime Minister Nuri Al- Maliki is still calling the shots in Iraq. He has been accused of imposing sectarian policies that have antagonized the Sunnis.
In the aftermath of the fall of Ramadi, Sunni tribes accepted the intervention of the PMF under certain conditions. But this carries a great risk for all parties. There are no guarantees that zealot Shiites will be prevented from taking revenge against local residents. Already thousands of Al-Anbar families have been displaced by the recent fighting. Most have been prevented from entering Baghdad and have taken refuge in nearby villages under catastrophic conditions. The humanitarian aspect of the suffering of Iraq’s Sunnis is often ignored by the government and the media.
Now tribal heads have called on Jordan to open its borders to the waves of Al-Anbar refugees. The recent developments in the province will worry Amman, which sees Al-Anbar as a strategic link to Iraq. Last month, suicide bombers blew themselves up at the Iraqi border crossing into Jordan killing and injuring dozens. It was a warning that the fall of Al-Anbar will bring IS militants closer to Jordanian territory.
The fall of Ramadi underlines a number of important messages. After almost six months of coalition airstrikes, the militants remain strong and ambitious, while the Iraqi Army continues to exhibit signs of weakness and disorganization on the ground. The militants have retaken most of Iraq’s largest oil refinery in Baiji, in the north, in spite of relentless coalition bombing and attempts by the Iraqi army to drive them out.
On the other hand, the government in Baghdad is still unable, or unwilling, to respond to Sunni pleas that they receive arms and training in order to stand up to the militants.
Failure to come to the aid of residents of Al-Anbar will leave an indelible wound among the tribes and will drive a wedge between them and the central government. It will also lend support to those who are calling for self-rule in Sunni governorates. Some tribal heads have threatened to form a temporary government in Al-Anbar; a first step toward full secession. Furthermore, the sectarian tension that has gripped Iraq for years will only increase as the PMF move into Al-Anbar and other Sunni areas. Hezbollah militias announced that they would send fighters to the governorate as well, fueling sectarian tensions.
Abadi may want to appease the Sunnis, but he is definitely under pressure from local Shiite leaders and Iran. His hesitation to back the Sunnis in Al-Anbar has allowed the militants to make substantial gains. This will put additional strain on the armed forces and will certainly delay plans to liberate Mosul sometime this year. The fall of Ramadi sends an ominous signal to Iraq’s Sunnis who now find themselves caught between the bloodthirsty militants and the vengeful Shiite militias. It will give credence to Sunni calls to cede from Baghdad.
