Palestinian citizens in Israel turnout could bring down Netanyahu

Palestinian citizens of Israel who managed to cobble together a united list for the second time in their history hope this will encourage Palestinian voters to go to the polls.

Israel is expected to hold general parliamentary elections on Sept. 17. Benjamin Netanyahu, who was unable to form a government after last April’s elections, is hoping to become prime minister for the fifth time despite the fact that he has been indicted on a number of corruption counts.

A simple increase in voter turnout could boost the number of Arab seats in the Knesset and provide a chance to block Netanyahu’s political ambitions.

The joint list is made up of Hadash (the democratic front for peace and equality) headed by Ayman Odeh, Balad led by Mtanes Shehadeh, Ahmad Tibi’s Arab Movement for Change, and the Islamic Movement (southern branch) fronted by Mansour Abbas.

The Balad movement was the last to join, making its announcement late on Sunday, July 28 after its politburo met in Nazareth. In the 2015 elections, the joint list won 13 seats with a 61 percent turnout while last April the combined two lists only won 10 seats with a turnout under 50 percent.

The challenge is big because of the disappointment and the anger of Palestinian citizens in Israel regarding the last elections when the leaders were unable to agree on a united list.

Now that the list has been re-established it is unclear whether this will wipe away the frustration that brought down voter turnout and lowered the number of Knesset seats.

The reasons for Palestinian citizens of Israel failing to vote vary from apathy and lack of interest in politics to a response to boycott the campaign by left-wing and Islamic groups, who argue that participation legitimizes the state of Israel and gives the veneer of democracy even though Palestinians will never be asked to be part of any ruling coalition no matter how many seats they gain.

The boycott campaign has been growing in recent years as Israeli policy has become more discriminatory against Palestinians living in Israel as seen in the Jewish nationality law that designates all non-Jews as second-class citizens.

One way of encouraging voters to come out for the Sept. 17 poll has been to convince them that their vote could be the difference between the ascension of Netanyahu to a record fifth term as premier or the end of his legacy.

Knesset member, Tibi, believes that the joint list will now be able to work together against huge challenges. Palestinian citizens of Israel are fighting racism and want the voices of the authentic Palestinian minority in Israel to be heard. They want to be part of the change in the political party landscape by defeating the right-wing forces and bringing down Netanyahu.

Tibi admits that “mistakes were committed” in the past and has publicly said he hopes that the joint list will learn from its mistakes.

Knesset member, Aida Tuma-Suleiman, said that the joint list itself represented a victory for the Palestinian minority in Israel and for the Palestinian people as a whole.

The big question that needs to be answered is not only whether the existence of a single joint list will bring out voters in the Palestinian sector in Israel, but if it makes any difference if successful.

Botrus Mansour, a Nazareth lawyer and a keen observer of the Israeli election scene, said the back and forth between the parties and the disagreement over the lists have “left a bad taste in the mouth.” He is worried that the enthusiasm that could up the turnout rate is absent this time, as many Palestinians living in Israel are unhappy with the general situation and the impotence of Arab parliamentarians in the Israeli Knesset.

The challenge is big because of the disappointment and the anger of Palestinian citizens in Israel regarding the last elections when the leaders were unable to agree on a united list.

Daoud Kuttab

But Mansour believes that the size of the Palestinian turnout could influence the overall political map of Israel regarding the future of Netanyahu. If the Arab vote can match the 13 seats captured in 2015 it will be almost impossible for Netanyahu to form a coalition government.

Currently, all the left-wing parties, the Arabs and the Blue and White party were expected to receive 52 seats, according to the polls. Likud and the right-wing parties would likely get 58-59 seats. Netanyahu needs a coalition of 61 seats out of the 120 to form a government. Avigdor Lieberman will have the ability to decide the future of the government with the eight or nine seats he is expecting to secure.

Mansour noted that Lieberman wants a national unity government, but the Blue and White party is opposed to any government with Netanyahu as its head although it is willing to sit with any other Likud personality.

The joint list with its four components can increase the number of seats in the Knesset if it presents an electoral plan that will defend the civil rights of Palestinians. If they work well together, they might become the biggest list in the Israeli Knesset that is opposed to the racist policies of Netanyahu.

A single seat or two could deny Netanyahu his required 61 seats because the struggle within Israel is not simply among parties but between the right-wing block headed by Netanyahu and the center block led by former general Benny Gantz.

Neither of these two stand on issues that are anywhere close to the minimum that Palestinians expect, but it seems that any coalition without Netanyahu will not be able to easily move toward the annexation of Palestinian territories or ensure the kind of blind support that US President Donald Trump has been providing to Netanyahu.

Palestinian citizens in Israel can for the first time in many years make a difference in the overall political map if they turn out to vote. But will they?