It has been nearly seven months since the clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the powerful paramilitary group the Rapid Support Forces broke out in Sudan and there is still no sign of a resolution or a clear winner.

Since the parties could not reach agreement on a permanent ceasefire in the early days of the conflict, it became inevitable that the clashes would descend into the current bloody civil war.

Unfortunately, as the war continues, Sudan is likely to become even more fragmented and the number of groups getting involved is likely to multiply. This will intensify the violence across the country, as well as escalate the scope, magnitude and longevity of the war.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian disaster that the war has inflicted on the ordinary people of Sudan has reached catastrophic levels. Major cities have been destroyed, more than 5 million people have been displaced, about 9,000 have been killed and more than 12,000 have been injured, according to the latest estimates.

It is also alarming that there have been cases of dengue fever, measles, malaria and cholera, especially as nearly 70 percent of healthcare facilities in the affected areas are currently out of service. The continuation of the conflict could cause the total collapse of the healthcare system in Sudan — and this could lead to larger disease outbreaks that affect other countries as well.

It is important to point out that children, the most vulnerable group in a society, tend to be the ones most impacted by civil war. Already, some 20 million children have been affected across Sudan as schools have been shut down, while 14 million children are in urgent need of lifesaving humanitarian support. It should also come as a warning that the recruitment of children as soldiers has been witnessed in Sudan. According to the Darfur Bar Association, cases of child soldiers fighting for both parties in the conflict have been reported. 

The humanitarian disaster that the war has inflicted on the ordinary people of Sudan has reached catastrophic levels.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Efforts to broker a peace agreement have unfortunately been ineffective so far and cease-fires have failed to hold. As Amnesty International Secretary-General Agnes Callamard pointed out: “People are being killed inside their homes, or while desperately searching for food, water and medicine. They are being caught in crossfire while fleeing, and shot deliberately in targeted attacks. Scores of women and girls, some as young as 12, have been raped and subjected to other forms of sexual violence by members of the warring sides. Nowhere is safe.”

Any effective solution that could lead to a political process aimed at ending the conflict requires regional involvement. The participation, strong engagement and cooperation of regional nations, particularly those most impacted by the conflict, is vital. The African Union ought to play a leading role in any diplomatic initiative by spearheading dialogue and negotiations that can ensure a permanent ceasefire, as well as the opening of corridors for humanitarian aid delivery.

A resolution must involve all parties and set out a path for a comprehensive and inclusive political process. The exclusion of any party that is invested in the Sudan conflict, whether it is a state or a nonstate actor, could ultimately lead to the failure of a negotiated agreement.

It was a step in the right direction that the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development this month proposed a new vision to bring an end to the war in Sudan. Meanwhile, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in July hosted the leaders of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Chad, Eritrea, the Central African Republic and Libya. These were the most high-level regional peace talks held since the war erupted. The meeting was a positive sign that Sudan’s neighboring countries are trying to take a more prominent role. As El-Sisi concluded: “An agreement has been reached to form a ministerial mechanism regarding the Sudanese crisis at the level of foreign ministers of neighboring countries. The RSF and Sudan’s military have agreed to at least 10 ceasefires, many of which were brokered during the Jeddah talks.” 

Any effective solution that could lead to a political process aimed at ending the conflict requires regional involvement.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

The African Union could seek the assistance of the UN. In order to facilitate the peacemaking process, the UN must take a firm and unified stance against the war in Sudan. Many countries could come together and use their political leverage to impose diplomatic pressure on the parties involved in the conflict.

Another approach would be to use economic pressure against those parties that refuse to participate in peace talks. Financial sanctions or incentives are often instrumental in pushing parties engaged in war into negotiating a ceasefire.

The African Union could also turn to the Arab League for help. More fundamentally, it could incorporate the Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan into its efforts. Some of the important terms in Saudi Arabia’s plan are that it is anchored in international human rights law and it places an emphasis on making a distinction between civilians and combatants, ensuring the safe passage of civilians, protecting medical personnel, allowing humanitarian relief to reach the population and preventing the recruitment of children as soldiers.

In summary, it is a step in the right direction that the African Union is taking a more powerful and prominent role in order to bring an end to the war in Sudan. The international community should support this initiative, as well as the efforts initiated by Sudan’s neighboring countries.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.

X: @Dr_Rafizadeh