If anyone expected that in his first campaign advertisement on television, released on Monday, Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump would try somehow to pull back from his most controversial pronouncement so far, they were sorely mistaken.
Last month, in the wake of the mass murder in San Bernardino, California, by a husband-and-wife team of Pakistani origin, Trump infamously called for a ban on all Muslims entering the United States, at least until the nation can figure out “what the hell is going on.”
Even his fellow contenders for the Republican presidential nomination, none of whom could be accused of liberal tendencies, thought that he had gone over the top. However, the message found a receptive ear among his core support groups. So it is repeated in the TV ad, alongside promises to behead Daesh and “take their oil” and to put up a wall on the border with Mexico that the latter would pay for.
Trump is insouciant about the fact that a video clip containing his call to deny entry to Muslims turned up shortly afterward in recruitment propaganda put out by Al-Qaeda’s Somali affiliate Al-Shabab. He would presumably be equally unperturbed by the likelihood that any radicals who are able to vote in the US may well favor his candidacy, given that he would be an ideal poster boy for the image they wish to project of America.
Does this man seriously stand a chance of being elected the president of the world’s only superpower in November? Sure, Ronald Reagan romped in twice, despite not having much between his ears, as his favorite ally, Margaret Thatcher, so eloquently put it. And George W. Bush may have required Supreme Court assistance on his first try, but he managed to win re-election even after it had become reasonably clear that the invasion of Iraq was proving to be a disaster. But still. Donald Trump? Would the Republican Party run the risk of fielding a certifiable neo-fascist clown?
After all, it’s not just Muslims this man seems to abhor. He doesn’t have much time for African Americans either. Nor for immigrants in general. And while there’s a place for the fairer sex in his bigoted vision, it’s not the kind most self-respecting women would be prepared to occupy.
That adds up to a fairly formidable voting bloc. Not surprisingly, some opinion polls suggest that Hillary Clinton would defeat him by a substantial margin and Bernie Sanders by an even bigger one. Of course, regardless of how he fares in the caucuses and primaries that kick off in Iowa on Feb. 1, Sanders’s chances of emerging as the Democratic candidate are negligible. The “socialist” tag he wears with pride may not mean all that much — in many other countries he would be seen as a middle-of-the-road social democrat — but in the US it effectively disqualifies him as a contender.
The electorate might not feel that way: A substantial proportion of it likes what he has to say, particularly on economic matters and “socialism” was the most looked-up word in US online dictionary searches last year, pointing to a spirit of inquiry one doesn’t generally associate with the American electorate. Besides, the Sanders campaigned raised $33 million from individual donations in the last three months of 2015, exceeding Barack Obama’s hitherto record total. The Democratic hierarchy will nonetheless be reluctant to endorse anyone other than Clinton, whose credentials as a neoliberal in economic matters and effectively a neoconservative on the political plane would appear to suggest that she could rope in Republicans disenchanted with their party’s choice of candidate.
That will inevitably depend on who the so-called Grand Old Party (GOP) throws up. Ted Cruz, whom the crucial evangelical Christian constituency reportedly favors, probably stands the best chance of trumping the man known as The Donald.
W’s brother Jeb Bush and Ben Carson, whose presumed intelligence as a neurosurgeon has been offset by some of the things he has said in public, have receded into the background. Marco Rubio has been overshadowed by Cruz, but it may be unwise to write him off just yet.
The remaining candidates — including those of have failed before, such as Mick Huckabee and Rand Paul, as well as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — appear to be on the wane. One of them could conceivably spring a surprise in the months ahead, but the biggest likelihood in the run-up to July’s Republican convention is of a Trump vs. Cruz contest. The former might yet implode, but the alternative is hardly less unpleasant.
At any rate, the possibility of a Trump presidency, however weird it might sound, cannot be completely ruled out just yet. “The world is laughing at us,” the man himself announced to The Washington Post a few days ago. “It’s got to stop.” On this point, it would be hard to disagree. It’s all too easy to mock the man with the orange hair, but there will be precious little cause for amusement if he somehow does make it to the White House.
