The India-Pakistan diplomatic season has finally begun. But like all start-stop-start bilateral dialogues between the two nuclear armed South Asian neighbors, the present engagement too appears tenuous and nobody knows how long the current much-hyped resumed dialogue process will last.
This process got kicked off in Ufa, Russia, on July 10 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) when prime ministers of India and Pakistan — Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif respectively — met. The importance of the high-voltage rare India-Pakistan summit was further enhanced when the two countries’ foreign secretaries addressed the media in Ufa jointly and read out a joint media statement — both events a rarity in the India-Pakistan context.
The joint statement laid out a five-point roadmap agreed by the two prime ministers, which is as follows:
(i) A meeting in New Delhi between the two National Security Advisors (NSAs) to discuss all issues connected to terrorism; (ii) Early meetings of chiefs of the two sides’ paramilitary forces – Border Security Force ( BSF) and Pakistan Rangers – guarding the India-Pakistan borders, followed by that of the two sides’ Directors General of Military Operation; (iii) Decision for release of fishermen in each other’s custody, along with their boats, within a period of 15 days; (iv) Mechanism for facilitating religious tourism; and (v) an agreement to discuss ways and means to expedite the Mumbai case trial, including additional information like providing voice samples.
The text of this joint statement became controversial as there was no mention of Kashmir in it, a subject which Islamabad has for years described as “a core issue.” Worse, from Pakistani viewpoint, there was no mention of the Samjhauta Express terror attack in India suspected to be carried out by Hindu fundamentalists but the lack of progress in the Mumbai terror attacks in November 2008 found a specific mention.
This kicked up a furor in Pakistan. Irate Pakistanis poured vitriol on Sharif for his alleged sins of omission and commission and it appeared that for a change Pakistan had lost a battle of brownie points to India and the Indians had succeeded in sealing a rare PR victory over Pakistan.
But Pakistan struck back three days later when Sartaz Aziz, Sharif’s adviser on security and foreign affairs, gave a mouthful to the Indians. He said no dialogue process with India could start without inclusion of Kashmir on the agenda of talks and made it clear that Pakistan will not hold talks with India at the cost of the nation’s dignity and honor.
Sartaj Aziz’s remarks expectedly dominated the Indian media for the next 24 hours and the opposition Congress party quickly hauled the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over coals for misleading the nation by claiming that the India-Pakistan summit at Ufa was a “breakthrough” and a “game changer”.
Notably, the Indian government maintained an eerie silence over the Sartaj Aziz remarks. On Tuesday, officials of the Indian government, speaking on condition of anonymity, made it clear that India would go ahead with talks with Pakistan as per the Ufa roadmap.
It is a refreshing change from the Indian government to see that New Delhi remains unaffected by hawkish remarks of Sartaj Aziz, conveying that such remarks were largely aimed at Pakistan’s very own domestic constituency. In other words, the Indian government has let it be known that it is fully cognizant of the political compulsions of the Sharif government and would nonetheless walk its talk in the Ufa spirit. This is a happy turn of events in the India-Pakistan context as the two irreconcilable neighbors are known to take extreme positions at the drop of a hat.
This is definitely a mature sign from the two sides, even though it must have come under immense diplomatic pressures from the United States-led international community. Now all eyes are set on the NSA-level talks likely to be held in New Delhi later this month. This event will decide whether the two squabbling neighbors would stay engaged despite provocations or whether they would sacrifice larger diplomatic interests at the altar of petty near-term politics.
However, the two sides are in with a whale of a chance to improve bilateral relations in view of the fact that Modi has accepted Sharif’s invitation to visit Pakistan next year when Islamabad hosts the next summit of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The next few weeks are crucial in the India-Pakistan interplay.
It will be indeed interesting to see whether the two South Asian rivals show statesmanship or whether they allow themselves to be hijacked by parochial political considerations.
