Syrian propaganda machine was quick to reassure those worried about the preoccupation of Russia in the Ukraine crisis from supporting the regime of Bashar Assad, citing the statement issued in the aftermath of the pro-Assad China, Russia meeting, and Moscow’s pledge to veto a referral of war crimes to the International Tribunal, and, of course, its support to Assad’s farce reelection. The Syrian propaganda machine also claims that Russia is confident of Assad regaining his authority over the entire country within three years.
Russia can use its veto power indefinitely in the Security Council, but this will not be enough for the survival of Assad. What Russia is doing now to prevent the referral of Assad’s war crimes to the International Tribunal is just another crime.
Despite all-out Russian support to the brutal Syrian regime, most of the Syrian territories are not under Assad’s control. Assad’s forces have put Homs under siege causing residents to starve to death and forcing fighters out of the city but still they have failed to curb fighting in the surrounding areas. Interestingly, fighters have resumed attacks on the capital again.
Moscow knows very well that despite all the support from Russia, Iran and pro-Assad militias, the regime has failed to win the battles on the ground.
Hence, Assad is doomed to fall whether it will be at the hands of the majority of the Syrian people opposing his tyranny, or will fall because of the extremist groups wishing to expand areas of control, who are more likely to be eyeing Damascus later.
In any case, the regime will not survive without the support from Moscow and Iran. As for Iran, it is more evident today that Tehran is more willing to accept a political solution in Damascus, even if the price would be the disposal of Assad. However, Iranian demands are still unacceptable and we realize that there is always a middle way that could be agreed upon in a timely manner.
Russia, already mired in Ukrainian crisis, is not in a position to mess around in far-flung Middle East. Russia is in a tight spot and desperately trying to control the situation in Ukraine fearing the spread of the crisis in other former Soviet republics.
By losing Ukraine, Russia has practically lost its most important ally in the world. All this was a result of the same mentality with which Russia deals with Syria as well. Moscow had insisted on the coronation of a hated president despite the rejection of his people, and forcibly returned him back to power, but in the end he was sent off in a popular revolution, which has turned into a curse against Moscow itself, and pushed the Ukrainians to join NATO.
This development has made the Russians face an economic and diplomatic confrontation with the United States and not with the relatively small Free Syrian Army. Moscow, with time and the increasing pressure is going to require external support. Would that come from the Syrians and the Iranians? In reality, they are already dependent on Russia and are a political burden. Iran cannot continue under the current stiffened siege, and the Assad regime is broke and cannot even afford to pay for the imported flour bags. All we can say is that Moscow’s policy is stupid.
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