If one is to look for the reasons behind the widening rift between the United States and Saudi Arabia, it would be a mistake to start with the US government’s courtship of Iran. Even calling it a rift may not be accurate, but rather a progressive change in self-interests.
The ever divergent paths Saudi Arabia and the United States are taking, dates at least to the Iraq invasion in 2003. It set the stage for President Obama to extricate American troops from the war and keep his promise to keep America out of the war. His reluctance to commit troops to the Syrian civil war or any regional conflict is viewed by many Saudis as weakness, as was his abandonment of Hosni Mubarak during the Egyptian revolution. The US will not commit ground troops to any Middle East conflict unless the self-ascribed Islamic State (IS) or its affiliates attack Americans on their own soil with significant casualties.
In fact, the Obama administration’s handling of the conflicts in the Middle East since the beginning of the so-called Arab Spring have been so bad that it has alarmed high-ranking Saudi officials who believe they lost a crucial partner in ensuring the stability in the region. There is little confidence among any of the Gulf nations that the US will be there for them in the event of a calamity.
While it’s bad foreign policy for the United States to enter into a nuclear agreement with Iran, the Obama administration is clearly pursuing an agenda that protects its own economic interests even at the expense of its longtime Middle East allies. By easing sanctions, Iran will rebuild its economy that only promises to further destabilize the region.
Obama seems to think that by returning Iran to the international community that its inclusiveness will somehow make it a more responsible government. Iran since 1979 has never demonstrated even an inkling of wanting to keep the region stable, especially with its meddling in Bahrain and Yemen. Just how Tehran will change its posture after 36 years remains a mystery.
The US is emboldened by the path it’s taking because of the recent oil boom in Texas and North Dakota. At least for the time being it does not have to rely on Saudi oil. That may be all well and good for now, but it hardly takes into account whether the United States can maintain sufficient oil production over the long haul. By damaging its relations with Saudi Arabia now, the US may have nowhere to turn to if it needs oil in the future
It’s for these reasons that Saudi Arabia has no alternative but to pursue its own foreign policy agenda without input from the US. It’s also for these reasons that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors can’t wait for the US to make up its mind about what it wants to do. So it’s reasonable that Saudi Arabia on its own is now rooting out Houthi rebels in Yemen to restore the country’s legitimate government. The Yemen conflict is an obvious change in policy as is the potential formation of a regional army, or at least a cooperative agreement to use Gulf countries’ armies as a regional military force to ensure stability.
The changes in the Saudi-US relationship should not be construed as a disaster either for the Americans or for Saudis. It was an inevitable course that Saudi Arabia has undertaken given the chain of events since 2003. It’s only surprising that it hasn’t occurred sooner.
And it certainly does not mean a breakdown in relations. The Saudi and American military continue to cooperate in destroying the IS targets in Syria and have a common interest to curb global extremism. The US continues to support Saudi Arabia’s Yemen campaign. Saudi Arabia, always the believer in quiet diplomacy, has taken a much-needed aggressive role in the region. It’s been a leader behind the scenes and now it’s leading at the forefront.
