The general elections for 543 seats in the 16th Lok Sabha (the Lower House of Parliament) in India are due in May 2014 and are of indisputable importance. Consequently, analyzing the trends and the likely outcome is of crucial importance globally. As the incumbent Congress Party-led coalition faces the rising Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and its allies, the Delhi-based Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led by Kejriwal threatens to queer the pitch as a third force. To add to the confusion Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of Bihar talks of a Third Front with the JD (U), the CPI and the CPI(M).

Whatever the outcome, the trend in recent Indian parliamentary elections has shown a “regionalization” of politics and the vital need for the national parties to form alliances with regional parties in order to form coalitions. That has had an impact on India’s foreign policy. Thus West Bengal politics influences India’s policy toward Bangladesh and Tamilnadu-based parties — Dravida Munetra Kazagham (DMK) led by Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha’s AIADMK — vie with each other in having a decisive impact on relations with Sri Lanka. India’s neighbors are generally better off with a strong center in the Indian Union.

Opinion polls are seldom an accurate guide to election outcomes especially when conducted in Asian societies where inherent cultural inhibitions make voters more reserved about divulging their political views to others let alone pollsters. However, three polls conducted in January point to the BJP getting more seats than Congress but neither party securing a majority by getting the required 272 seats or more. Thus the result will be a BJP-led coalition as things stand. Another major feature of the poll is that the personal popularity of Modi is higher than that of the BJP. And this is in spite of the controversy around Modi because of his alleged role in the anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat in 2002. The fact that Rahul Gandhi, while leading the Congress electoral campaign, has not been nominated as candidate for premier by the Congress is perceived as a sign of weakness.

The backdrop to this political process is the socioeconomic situation of a country of 1.2 billion, which has begun to surge forward economically like many others in the Global South such as Brazil, China and South Africa. At the same time inequalities and gaps in the development process reveal large segments of marginalized populations in addition to the deeply entrenched caste factor.

A people suffering under inequalities also look to populist leaders and parties as a remedy for their grievances. Arvind Kejriwal, the IIT (Indian Institute of Technology) graduate who worked in the Inland Revenue Service where he was directly exposed to the rich not paying their dues to society, served a political apprenticeship under Anna Hazare on the anti-corruption issue demanding a Lokpal (“caretaker of people,” an ombudsman). Within a short space of time the AAP gathered large numbers of supporters, winning 28 seats in Delhi where it has formed the administration with tacit support from Congress. The AAP has begun recruiting on a national scale and plan to contest in about 20 states. If successful they could tip the balance for a coalition. The AAP are still inexperienced in the actual task of governance and some of their actions like the disruptive dharna (demonstration) on the streets of Delhi and controversial statements have lost it some support. In the weeks ahead there will be many developments in the electoral campaign, which could influence the outcome. A major change in foreign policy is unlikely but the world will be watching and waiting for the election result of a major country armed with nuclear weapons.

• IDN-InDepthNews