Southern Syria clashes: A test to Jordan’s security

Jordan’s efforts to pacify Syria’s southern front by striking a truce between moderate opposition groups on the one hand, and Syrian government forces in Daraa governorate on the other, appear to have been scuttled following a sudden flare-up of violence that started two weeks ago. Amman wants to secure southern Syria against incursions by Daesh and other terrorist groups.

Independent reports are sketchy, but it seems opposition groups led by Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham (formerly Al-Nusra Front), along with other Islamist-leaning factions including members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), launched a surprise attack against government forces wedged in the heart of Daraa city’s Manshia district.

It is the first major confrontation to take place in almost two years. Groups associated with the so-called Southern Front, with ties to Jordan, have not participated in the hostilities. Other opposition groups, including Ahrar Al-Sham, appear to be aiming to pre-empt a surprise assault by government forces to retake Daraa city and regain control of border crossings with Jordan.

In response to the latest offensive, Syrian and Russian fighter jets have been carrying out bombing raids against rebel positions in the old city of Daraa, not far from the Jordanian border. Last week, shells fell on the outskirts of the town of Ramtha in northern Jordan, prompting the authorities to close schools and assure worried citizens that Jordan’s side of the border was secure.

The flare-up in southern Syria is particularly worrying for Jordan, as it could change the delicate strategic reality in that part of the war-torn country. Jordan had consistently denied reports by Damascus that it was involved in training Syrian rebels in the south or supplying them with weapons.

But in December, Lt. Gen. Mahmoud Freihat, chairman of Jordan’s joint chiefs­ of­ staff, told BBC Arabic that his country had trained some elements in the Syrian opposition to fight Daesh, not government forces. He also said Jordan was ready to open border crossings with Syria once government forces took over.

His statements were interpreted as a conciliatory message to Damascus. News reports spoke of high-level meetings between senior Syrian and Jordanian security officials in Amman last year.

There are signs that Jordan, which is a member of the US-led anti-Daesh coalition and part of the Friends of Syria group, is now charting a new course on Syria. That change started with Russia’s military intervention in Syria in September 2015, which Jordan supported. Amman has insisted that only a political solution can end Syria’s six-year civil war, and that Moscow’s role and influence were instrumental in achieving a peaceful deal.

It is understood that King Abdallah and President Vladimir Putin reached a “gentlemen’s agreement” on southern Syria last year to spare it from military operations, allowing Jordan to use its influence over the Southern Front to maintain a relative degree of calm.

More recently, Jordan was the only Arab country to be invited to the Astana talks on maintaining and extending the cease-fire agreement in Syria. During a meeting in the Kazakh capital in February, Amman proposed including a number of moderate opposition groups in southern Syria in the proposed peace talks. Moreover, Jordan has been waiting for further details on US President Donald Trump’s proposal to set up safe zones in Syria.

The establishment of such zones in southern Syria would serve a number of Jordanian priorities, including the possible repatriation of Syrian refugees while preventing Daesh from infiltrating its borders. Jordan has banned refugees in two ad-hoc camps on the Syrian side of the border from crossing into the Kingdom for fear they would include Daesh sleeper cells.

The stability of the Syrian front cuts right to the heart of Jordan’s national security. Amman is especially concerned about the presence of Daesh affiliate Jaish Khaled Ibn Al-Walid in the Yarmouk River basin, a few kilometers from Jordan’s borders.

This well-armed militia has used the latest confrontations in Daraa city to expand its presence in the western countryside of the governorate, close to Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Jordan had vowed to take action against this imminent threat, but it is not clear what military measures will be adopted.

Furthermore, as the offensive against Daesh intensifies in northern and eastern Syria, and in Mosul in Iraq, Jordan is worried that fleeing militants, including Jordanian jihadists, will retreat to southern Syria and breach its borders. Adding to Amman’s concern is the fact that Iranian militias and Hezbollah fighters are establishing footholds in southern Syria.

Jordan’s influence over opposition groups and tribal fighters in southern Syria is being put to the test. Ideally, Amman would prefer to see an understanding between government forces and moderate opposition forces, allowing the former to take control of border crossings on the Syrian side. The recent flare-up has derailed such efforts for now. There has been no official comment on the fighting in southern Syria by Amman.

Syrian President Bashar Assad once described the situation in Daraa as “a Jordanian problem.” This is more evident today than any time before.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.