The international community has spent the better part of the last three years supporting a peaceful settlement in Syria. The envisioned solution included in Geneva I agreement — to end the conflict between the opposition and the Assad regime — is centered on political transition.
Implicit in the Geneva I agreement is that Assad will have no political future in Syria. Being responsible for the deaths of more than 150,000 people, Assad can hardly qualify to take part in any future settlement in Syria let alone running for elections. And yet, Assad has a different plan. Supported by Hezbollah and Iranian boots on the ground, Assad’s forces have achieved some military success. Therefore, he seeks to capitalize on the new changes and get reelected by a landslide.
Besieged as he may look, Assad seeks another seven-year term. More now than ever, Assad is fighting to gain international legitimacy. Right or wrong, he believes that winning the upcoming elections will force the international community to deal with him as the legitimate leader of Syria. Apart from his winning, Assad seeks to become a partner of the West in its war on terror. His propaganda machine coupled with Hezbollah and Iran is trying to frame their war on the Syrian people’s quest for freedom as a war on terror. At the heart of his policy is painting the opposition as terrorist groups. By doing so, he hopes that both Israel and the United States will see eye to eye with him on this particular matter.
Assad seems confident that the tide of the conflict has turned in his favor. While the opposition groups have put up a good fight over the last three years, Assad realized that the West had never been serious in bringing about a change in Syria. In other words, the western powers have failed to put their money where their mouth is. When US President Barack Obama threatened to strike Assad’s troops, Assad was scared to death. To avert such lethal strike, he offered the country’s arsenal of chemical weapons. The chemical deal in effect has given Assad a kind of a contract thus turning Assad from an international pariah into a junior partner.
Thanks to Obama’s hesitance, Assad began to realize that he had impunity. In other words, he interpreted Obama’s hesitancy as a green light to continue his bloody crackdown on the Syrians. The air force has continued pounding cities causing thousands of death among Syrians and rebels and forcing Syrians to leave the country. Now half of the population is either refugees in neighboring countries or displaced.
Amid these circumstances, the elections will be held in June 3. Millions of Syrian will be absent. Also, candidates have to prove some 10 years of continuous residence in a country that is fraught with sectarian conflict. Not to mention, the credible politicians who can contest elections have been living in diaspora for a while. Seen in this way, there is no doubt that Assad will secure electoral victory on June 3.
And yet, Assad’s political gambit can hardly be a sign of strength. Indeed, Assad may be more exposed than he looks. His most recent military advancements can be reversed.
Also, the battlefield is seesaw. In other words, if the West provides the opposition with qualitative military weapons, Assad’s troops will for sure suffer grave consequences. Equally important, western powers began to suspect that Assad does not want to give up the entire chemical weapon in his arsenal. If this turns out to be an issue, then Assad needs to rethink his interpretation of the western “contract.”
It remains to be seen how the West will respond to a highly possible electoral victory of Assad. Far from being assured, Assad is seen worldwide as a dictator who does not hesitate killing his own people to stay in power. Not surprisingly, neither the West nor Arab countries can normalize relations with an Assad-led regime. Therefore, Assad’s political maneuver may backfire.
Email: [email protected]
