That Korean love-in was welcome...but now we need specifics

Only the third ever summit between the presidents of North and South Korea took place on Friday, a day laden with the ceremony and symbolism they can do only “East of Suez.” Kim Jong Un stepped over the border in the demilitarized zone, then offered to escort his South Korean counterpart back over the little brick wall to the North. After a little hesitation, Moon Jae-in obliged. The two leaders planted a tree on the border using soil from both the Koreas, and water from rivers in the North and the South.

The “Panmanjun Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification of the Korean Peninsula” reads well. It says the two countries want to end their state of war, and hails a new era of reconciliation. It also advocates a climate of cooperation, exchanges and visits, and the desire to rejuvenate a sense of national reconciliation and unity. It further proposes to alleviate military tension and work toward the denuclearization of the Peninsula.

This meeting, in the year of the 65th anniversary of the cease-fire, was hailed as historic in the two Koreas, in China and in the US. It certainly marks progress for Northeast Asia, which was becoming increasingly concerned about the potential for a nuclear war after Kim launched rocket after rocket this year toward the Sea of Japan.

This summit differed from the two previous ones in that it took place in the shadow of the forthcoming meeting between Kim and US President Donald Trump. Moreover, for the first time, the North Korean press acknowledged a South Korean leader as president of a country rather than the head of a puppet state — in itself a noticeable shift.

The declaration lacks specifics, especially on the definition of denuclearization. The pace and scale of what the Western allies have in mind may very well differ from the intentions of the North Korean leadership.

Cornelia Meyer

However, the declaration lacks specifics, especially on the definition of denuclearization. The pace and scale of what the Western allies have in mind may very well differ from the intentions of the North Korean leadership. Nor does it mention the presence of US troops in the demilitarised zone, an issue of interest beyond Korea. The US military presence is a thorn in the side of both China and Russia, but it is also a security guarantor for Japan and Taiwan; so how these issues are resolved matters greatly to Northeast Asia as a whole.

Beijing welcomed the rapprochement — as it would. China would like economic sanctions on North Korea lifted, not so much because of its own business interest as because prosperous nations make for more stable neighbors than destitute ones. The bellicose rhetoric of Trump and Kim had worried the Chinese leadership. They were less concerned about actual military hostilities and more that increased economic sanctions might leave North Korea so weak that China would have a problem on its border. The last thing any nation wants is a failed state in the neighborhood (many Middle Eastern or North African countries can give us chapter and verse on that problem).

Nevertheless, the overall tone of the summit was positive, and we may be witnessing a sea change in the inter-Korean relationship. After the two previous summits, in 2000 and 2007, the warmth of political spring was followed by the chill of enmity.

Much will now depend on what the Trump-Kim meeting produces. Equally important is bringing specifics to the vague terminology of the Declaration of Panmanjun. China and Russia will have their say, especially as they are co-signatories of the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement, with the US and North Korea (South Korea is absent from that list). The onus is therefore on the US to ensure the South’s interests are protected — as, by the way, should those of Japan, an important partner in the US defense strategy for Northeast Asia. Tokyo’s concerns over nuclear proliferation in the region, and the ever-growing Chinese military presence, have to be taken seriously — above all when it comes to developments in the Korean Peninsula.