Two political parties are trying to seize opportunities in the Yemeni crisis: The Muslim Brotherhood and southern secessionists, both of which are fighting via proxies. The Brotherhood believes southern secession is acceptable as this will enable it to dominate the north politically. Secessionists believe it will enhance their chances of governing Aden.
Separation will be more difficult to achieve than the coup against the legitimate government. In principle, a region’s separation from a country is not achieved unless citizens decide so, otherwise many countries worldwide would have been dismantled.
International law is relevant here. Practically, Kurdistan separated from Iraq in the 1990s, but after all these years it is still awaiting international recognition, despite the fact that the Kurds are a people with their own language, flag and Parliament that distinguish them from Iraq. Another example is Somalia, which for more than 20 years has been split into sub-states with their own jurisdiction, flag and currency, yet they have not been recognized.
There are no guarantees that the south will be stable if it separates. It might even open the door to more conflicts. Like the north, several rival tribes and local leaders disagree with one another in the south.
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
Even Scotland, which threatens to separate from the UK, cannot do so without London’s consent. Dozens of separation requests worldwide are made by regions that cannot succeed because the international community will not recognize them. Surely Yemen’s southern separatists can achieve their goal when suitable circumstances arise, not in the current absence of a state due to the war.
When the situation is settled and a permanent government is chosen or a legitimate Parliament elected, a separation can be legal if Yemenis on both sides agree. This was the case in Sudan, where the north accepted the separation of the south under international sponsorship. Yemen’s southern separatists ignore those facts in their statements.
The south has its own problems that developed during the regime of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, and several parties are fighting for power. There are no guarantees that the south will be stable if it separates. It might even open the door to more conflicts. Like the north, several rival tribes and local leaders disagree with one another in the south.
Undoubtedly, most southerners want separation. A charade called unity was imposed on them. Saleh impoverished the south, as he did the north. Yet southerners should not rush to celebrate separation because this is governed by international law, not by Aden. When Yemen stabilizes, if separation is not an option there are other choices just as good with wide administrative independence, such as federal or even confederal systems.
• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya News Channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published.
