Last Thursday’s announcement by US President Donald Trump that the UAE and Israel had reached an agreement to normalize relations under what he described as “a historic peace agreement” came as a shock to many in the region and beyond, but it wasn’t really surprising. Israel and the UAE have been conducting covert talks and exchanging secret visits for years; especially after the election of Trump and amid his efforts to conclude a peace deal between Israel and the Arabs. Israel has also cultivated ties with a number of other Gulf states, namely Qatar, Oman and Bahrain.
The UAE has said that the deal was reached in exchange for halting Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempt to annex parts of the West Bank. Trump said annexation was taken “off the table,” but Netanyahu was quick to announce that it was only delayed and a number of Israeli officials explained that the suspension was temporary.
Egypt, Bahrain and Oman were quick to laud the agreement, while other Arab capitals remained silent. The Palestinians denounced the deal and described it as a betrayal of their cause. US and Israeli officials predicted that other Arab states would soon follow the UAE, pointing to Bahrain, Oman and possibly Sudan.
One cannot help but view the latest deal as a seismic political event. The last time an Arab country forged peace with Israel was 26 years ago and, since then, the Arab world has stood firmly behind the Palestinians as they held direct negotiations with Israel under the Oslo Accords. The Arab stand was unanimously formed at the Beirut summit of 2002 through the Arab Peace Initiative (API), which underscored the land-for-peace formula as the only gateway to normalizing ties with Israel.
The UAE move has upended the API and this precedent is enough to pave the way for other countries to break ranks. But it is important to put the latest event in the context of recent regional developments. Decades of Palestinian-Israeli talks and understandings have led nowhere and, while Israel is to blame for violating its commitments, especially under the long reign of Netanyahu’s Likud party, the Palestinian leadership has arguably missed its rare opportunities to resolve final status issues. For almost a decade, the peace process has been at an impasse, while Israel used the deepening intra-Palestinian rift as an excuse to avoid the resumption of negotiations.
Meanwhile, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have changed facts on the ground and made the two-state solution, under which a viable and contiguous Palestinian state would be created, an unrealistic option.
It is ironic that Netanyahu, who had argued for a “peace in return for peace” formula as the only path to normalizing ties with the Arab world, has been rewarded for suspending what the international community had described as an illegal move. His annexation ploy was already in trouble and the Trump administration had reservations about backing a unilateral move that fulfilled only a part of the US peace vision.
Since 2002, the region has experienced several major events, including the invasion of Iraq, the Arab Spring, wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen, and the emergence of Daesh. The Arab world fell prey to three competing regional powers: Iran, Turkey and Israel. And behind these powers stood superpowers whose interests intersected or diverged over new regional crises. The Palestinian issue had become marginalized; overshadowed by these new crises, which posed various challenges to countries in the region. The conflict was redefined not as Arab-Israeli, but as Palestinian-Israeli, thus presenting individual countries with fresh strategic approaches to confronting geopolitical challenges.
Some will argue that the Palestinians can still benefit from the new reality of normalization.
Osama Al-Sharif
The UAE-Israel deal is a harbinger of things to come. It will eventually seal the fate of the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council, while delivering new regional alliances that can be seen as a reaction to the evolving roles of Iran and Turkey in the region’s affairs. Common enemies will bring former foes together. Some will argue that the Palestinians can still benefit from the new reality of normalization. Egypt and Jordan, through their peace treaties with Israel, have considerable sway over Israeli politics vis-a-vis the Palestinians. Jordan’s threat to suspend its peace treaty with Israel if the latter carried out unilateral annexation was fundamental in forcing Netanyahu’s hand and polarizing security and military officials. Egypt plays a key role in reining in Hamas in Gaza and reducing tensions with Israel.
While public sentiments across the Arab world will lean overwhelmingly against normalization and toward backing the Palestinians, governments — Jordan and Egypt being true examples — will take a more sober, albeit risky, approach to evolving strategic challenges. Israel may congratulate itself on an historic breakthrough, but it must not forget that its conflict with the Palestinians will have to be resolved eventually. Ignoring legitimate Palestinian aspirations remains its biggest existential threat.
- Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010
