After painstaking and sincere efforts made by Saudi Arabia, representatives of Syria’s opposition groups met last week in Riyadh and agreed on a unified position with regard to negotiating a political settlement to the ongoing Syrian crisis.
Much to the chagrin of Assad’s regional ally and foreign benefactor, the opposition groups transcended all differences and presented a united and clear-cut position. Obviously, the credit goes to Saudi Arabia. The aim of the conference was to bring together all opposition groups to pave way for the ouster of the Syrian dictator and to empower Syrians, to rebuild the war-torn country and to ensure establishment of a truly democratic and inclusive political order.
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir made it perfectly clear that Assad “has two choices: Either leave through negotiations, which could be faster, easier and best for everyone or he’ll (have to) leave through fighting.”
Having managed to agree on a unified stance on Syria, the opposition groups will be gearing for negotiations with the regime in January 2016. Their vision is in line with that of President Barack Obama who recently old reporters that he cannot “foresee a situation in which we can end the civil war in Syria while Assad remains in power… it may take some months for the Russians and the Iranians and frankly some members of the Syrian government and ruling elites within the regime to recognize the truth that I just articulated.”
However, it is easier said than done. Obama may now well understand that the Russians, Iranians and of course Assad hold totally different views.
Iran and Russia understand that Assad is a hurdle in the creation of a wider front against Daesh. Assad’s allies know that his atrocities are working as magnet for new recruits for Daesh. Therefore, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that their policies are designed to keep Assad rather than fighting Daesh. Against this backdrop, one wonders how realistic the US is when Obama and Kerry still hope that both Russia and Iran will turn around their positions on Syria.
Thus far, US Secretary of State John Kerry’s diplomacy has been revolving around one objective: To make the Syrian opposition hold talks with the regime so as to ensure a cease-fire.
In Kerry’s words, “We believe we are weeks away from the possibility of a cease-fire. And then we have the ability, if we can effectively put the transition of the government in place, to mobilize the government forces together with the opposition to all go after (Daesh). That’s the most effective way to go after them.”
At this point, one should read the writing on the wall. It is just unthinkable for Iran to come to the table to help lose its only puppet in Syria and to volunteer fighting Daesh. And why would Putin agree in the first place. It takes no genius to figure out that the American administration is wishful and the Russian-Iran-Assad coalition is most likely not to yield to the American logic.
All of Kerry’s and Obama’s objectives hinge on the other side — who pursues the opposite objectives — to do things as the Americans want them to do. Until this, the American administration will work to keep the Vienna process afloat. Fortunately, supporters of the Syrian people are not oblivious to this situation. They know that Iran and Assad will for sure act in a bad faith. For this reason, Al-Jubeir’s statement about the inevitability of removing Assad is a fresh reminder that the Syrian people will not be left at the mercy of spoilers.
